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仙女座和银河系未必会相撞

2025-06-03 17:38 by 再会,谢谢所有的鱼

银河系被广泛认为会在 45 亿年之后与其最近邻居仙女座相撞。但最新研究认为这并非是必然发生的。研究团队分析了来自哈勃和盖亚的资料,考虑了 22 种可能影响我们星系与邻近星系之间潜在碰撞的不同变量,并进行多达 10 万次的电脑模拟,并延伸至未来 100 亿年。由于变数太多,每个变数都有误差,累积起来对结果的不确定性相当大,结果显示银河系和仙女座在接下来 100 亿年内发生真正碰撞的机率只有约 50%,换言之,另一半的机率可能只是擦身而过,而非正面相撞。研究团队指出预测星系相互作用的长期未来具有很大的不确定性,但新发现挑战了先前的共识,并表明银河系的命运仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。再考虑到太阳会在大约 10 亿年后让地球变得不适合居住,而太阳本身也很可能在 50 亿年后燃烧殆尽,因此与仙女座相撞是我们在宇宙中最不需要担心的事。

www.nature.com/articles/s41550-025-02563-1
天文館:銀河系與仙女座星系碰撞的不確定性

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仙女座和银河系未必会相撞

2025-06-03 17:38 by 再会,谢谢所有的鱼

银河系被广泛认为会在 45 亿年之后与其最近邻居仙女座相撞。但最新研究认为这并非是必然发生的。研究团队分析了来自哈勃和盖亚的资料,考虑了 22 种可能影响我们星系与邻近星系之间潜在碰撞的不同变量,并进行多达 10 万次的电脑模拟,并延伸至未来 100 亿年。由于变数太多,每个变数都有误差,累积起来对结果的不确定性相当大,结果显示银河系和仙女座在接下来 100 亿年内发生真正碰撞的机率只有约 50%,换言之,另一半的机率可能只是擦身而过,而非正面相撞。研究团队指出预测星系相互作用的长期未来具有很大的不确定性,但新发现挑战了先前的共识,并表明银河系的命运仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。再考虑到太阳会在大约 10 亿年后让地球变得不适合居住,而太阳本身也很可能在 50 亿年后燃烧殆尽,因此与仙女座相撞是我们在宇宙中最不需要担心的事。

www.nature.com/articles/s41550-025-02563-1
天文館:銀河系與仙女座星系碰撞的不確定性

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