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小行星 2024 YR4 撞击月球概率上调至 3.8%

2025-04-03 22:44 by 继位之争

小行星 2024 YR4 不太可能在 2032 年 12 月 22 日撞击地球,但更有可能撞击月球。NASA 利用韦伯太空望远镜的红外线观测数据,更新了对 小行星 2024 YR4 大小估计。最新结果显示,2024 YR4 的直径约为 53 至 67 米,约相当于一栋 10 层楼高的建筑物。NASA 同时更新了 2024 YR4 未来可能撞击月球的机率。原先评估撞击月球的机率为 1.7%,最新数据已将此数值上调至 3.8%。尽管如此,仍有高达 96.2% 的机率显示这颗小行星将擦过月球,不会发生撞击。即便发生极少数机率下的撞击事件,也不会对月球的轨道造成任何实质影响。随着小行星逐渐远离地球,到了 4 月中旬之后,地面望远镜将难以继续追踪 2024 YR4。韦伯太空望远镜已计划于 5 月再度观测这颗小行星,持续监测其动态并进一步确认其轨道参数。

NASA:NASA Update on the Size Estimate and Lunar Impact Probability of Asteroid 2024 YR4

天文館:NASA 更新小行星 2024 YR4 尺寸估計與撞月機率

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小行星 2024 YR4 撞击月球概率上调至 3.8%

2025-04-03 22:44 by 继位之争

小行星 2024 YR4 不太可能在 2032 年 12 月 22 日撞击地球,但更有可能撞击月球。NASA 利用韦伯太空望远镜的红外线观测数据,更新了对 小行星 2024 YR4 大小估计。最新结果显示,2024 YR4 的直径约为 53 至 67 米,约相当于一栋 10 层楼高的建筑物。NASA 同时更新了 2024 YR4 未来可能撞击月球的机率。原先评估撞击月球的机率为 1.7%,最新数据已将此数值上调至 3.8%。尽管如此,仍有高达 96.2% 的机率显示这颗小行星将擦过月球,不会发生撞击。即便发生极少数机率下的撞击事件,也不会对月球的轨道造成任何实质影响。随着小行星逐渐远离地球,到了 4 月中旬之后,地面望远镜将难以继续追踪 2024 YR4。韦伯太空望远镜已计划于 5 月再度观测这颗小行星,持续监测其动态并进一步确认其轨道参数。

NASA:NASA Update on the Size Estimate and Lunar Impact Probability of Asteroid 2024 YR4

天文館:NASA 更新小行星 2024 YR4 尺寸估計與撞月機率

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