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๐Ÿ”— ์›๋ฌธ๋ณด๊ธฐ | ์ €์ž SimonaD

๐Ÿ“ˆ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„์ฐจํŠธ ๋ณด๊ธฐ

"๋น„ํŠธ์ฝ”์ธ NVT, ์žฅ๊ธฐ SOPR, ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰ ์ง€ํ‘œ, ๊ณผ์—ด ์‹œ์‚ฌ"

๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ ๊ฐ€์น˜ ๋Œ€ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ (NVT, Network Value to Transaction Ratio) ํฌ๋กœ์Šค ์ง€ํ‘œ๋Š” ์ฝ”์ธ์˜ ์‹œ๊ฐ€์ด์•ก์„ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋œ ์ฝ”์ธ ์ด๋Ÿ‰์˜ USD ๊ฐ’์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜๋ˆˆ ๊ฐ’์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

์ด์ง€ํ‘œ์˜ ๊ฐ’์ด 2.2๋ณด๋‹ค ๋†’์€ ๊ฐ’์€ ์‹œ๊ฐ€์ด์•ก์ด ์‹ค์ œ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ์—์„œ ์ „์†ก๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์ฝ”์ธ์˜ ์–‘๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ๋†’๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ๊ณผ๋Œ€ํ‰๊ฐ€๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ด์„ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.(๋นจ๊ฐ„ ์˜์—ญ) -1.6์ดํ•˜์˜ ๋‚ฎ์€ ๊ฐ’์€ ์‹œ๊ฐ€์ด์•ก์ด ์‹ค์ œ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ์—์„œ ์ „์†ก๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์ฝ”์ธ์˜ ์–‘๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ๋‚ฎ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ๊ณผ์†Œํ‰๊ฐ€๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ด์„ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.(๋…น์ƒ‰ ์˜์—ญ) ์ตœ๊ทผ NVT์ง€ํ‘œ๋Š” ๊ณผ๋Œ€ํ‰๊ฐ€ ์˜์—ญ์— ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์›Œ์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

์žฅ๊ธฐ, ๋‹จ๊ธฐ ํ™€๋” SOPR์ง€ํ‘œ๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋ฉด ์žฅ๊ธฐ๋ณด์œ ์ž๋“ค์ด ๋งค๋„์„ธ์— ๊ฐ€๋‹ดํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ์„ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ถ”๊ฐ€๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰์— ๋น„ํ•ด ๊ณผ์—ด๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋Š” ์ƒํ™ฉ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ๋น„ํŠธ์ฝ”์ธ์€ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์กฐ์ • ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ๋†’์•„์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


๐Ÿฆ ๊ณต์‹ ํฌ๋ฆฝํ† ํ€€ํŠธ ํŠธ์œ„ํ„ฐ(๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ทํ•œ๊ตญ์–ด)
โœˆ๏ธ ๊ณต์‹ ํฌ๋ฆฝํ† ํ€€ํŠธ ํ…”๋ ˆ๊ทธ๋žจ(๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ทํ•œ๊ตญ์–ด)
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๐Ÿ”— ์›๋ฌธ๋ณด๊ธฐ | ์ €์ž SimonaD

๐Ÿ“ˆ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„์ฐจํŠธ ๋ณด๊ธฐ

"๋น„ํŠธ์ฝ”์ธ NVT, ์žฅ๊ธฐ SOPR, ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰ ์ง€ํ‘œ, ๊ณผ์—ด ์‹œ์‚ฌ"

๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ ๊ฐ€์น˜ ๋Œ€ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ (NVT, Network Value to Transaction Ratio) ํฌ๋กœ์Šค ์ง€ํ‘œ๋Š” ์ฝ”์ธ์˜ ์‹œ๊ฐ€์ด์•ก์„ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋œ ์ฝ”์ธ ์ด๋Ÿ‰์˜ USD ๊ฐ’์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜๋ˆˆ ๊ฐ’์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

์ด์ง€ํ‘œ์˜ ๊ฐ’์ด 2.2๋ณด๋‹ค ๋†’์€ ๊ฐ’์€ ์‹œ๊ฐ€์ด์•ก์ด ์‹ค์ œ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ์—์„œ ์ „์†ก๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์ฝ”์ธ์˜ ์–‘๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ๋†’๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ๊ณผ๋Œ€ํ‰๊ฐ€๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ด์„ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.(๋นจ๊ฐ„ ์˜์—ญ) -1.6์ดํ•˜์˜ ๋‚ฎ์€ ๊ฐ’์€ ์‹œ๊ฐ€์ด์•ก์ด ์‹ค์ œ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ์—์„œ ์ „์†ก๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์ฝ”์ธ์˜ ์–‘๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ๋‚ฎ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ๊ณผ์†Œํ‰๊ฐ€๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ด์„ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.(๋…น์ƒ‰ ์˜์—ญ) ์ตœ๊ทผ NVT์ง€ํ‘œ๋Š” ๊ณผ๋Œ€ํ‰๊ฐ€ ์˜์—ญ์— ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์›Œ์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

์žฅ๊ธฐ, ๋‹จ๊ธฐ ํ™€๋” SOPR์ง€ํ‘œ๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋ฉด ์žฅ๊ธฐ๋ณด์œ ์ž๋“ค์ด ๋งค๋„์„ธ์— ๊ฐ€๋‹ดํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ์„ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ถ”๊ฐ€๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰์— ๋น„ํ•ด ๊ณผ์—ด๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋Š” ์ƒํ™ฉ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ๋น„ํŠธ์ฝ”์ธ์€ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์กฐ์ • ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ๋†’์•„์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


๐Ÿฆ ๊ณต์‹ ํฌ๋ฆฝํ† ํ€€ํŠธ ํŠธ์œ„ํ„ฐ(๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ทํ•œ๊ตญ์–ด)
โœˆ๏ธ ๊ณต์‹ ํฌ๋ฆฝํ† ํ€€ํŠธ ํ…”๋ ˆ๊ทธ๋žจ(๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ทํ•œ๊ตญ์–ด)

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Spiking bond yields driving sharp losses in tech stocks

A spike in interest rates since the start of the year has accelerated a rotation out of high-growth technology stocks and into value stocks poised to benefit from a reopening of the economy. The Nasdaq has fallen more than 10% over the past month as the Dow has soared to record highs, with a spike in the 10-year US Treasury yield acting as the main catalyst. It recently surged to a cycle high of more than 1.60% after starting the year below 1%. But according to Jim Paulsen, the Leuthold Group's chief investment strategist, rising interest rates do not represent a long-term threat to the stock market. Paulsen expects the 10-year yield to cross 2% by the end of the year. A spike in interest rates and its impact on the stock market depends on the economic backdrop, according to Paulsen. Rising interest rates amid a strengthening economy "may prove no challenge at all for stocks," Paulsen said.

If riding a bucking bronco is your idea of fun, youโ€™re going to love what the stock market has in store. Consider this past weekโ€™s ride a preview.The weekโ€™s action didnโ€™t look like much, if you didnโ€™t know better. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 213.12 points or 0.6%, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite ended little changed.

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