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中金:下调布伦特油价年中枢至每桶 70 美元
中金发表研究报告指,美国对等关税政策打压经济增长预期,布伦特油价于上周进一步跌破每桶 65 美元。回顾历史,类似的价格跌幅大多发生在经济衰退时期。需求预期承压之际,OPEC + 决定在 5 月加快增产,超出市场预期。该行认为这或受到政治和地缘等外部因素的影响,并将加剧石油市场过剩压力。该行结合年初以来的基本面变化,上调全年石油供需过剩预期至每日 67 万桶,同时下调布伦特油价年中枢至每桶 70 美元,而第二至第四季中枢分别为每桶 67.5、72.5 及 65 美元。风险情形下,若贸易摩擦下全球经济增长进一步受压,或为油价带来每桶约 5 美元的额外下跌空间。



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中金:下调布伦特油价年中枢至每桶 70 美元
中金发表研究报告指,美国对等关税政策打压经济增长预期,布伦特油价于上周进一步跌破每桶 65 美元。回顾历史,类似的价格跌幅大多发生在经济衰退时期。需求预期承压之际,OPEC + 决定在 5 月加快增产,超出市场预期。该行认为这或受到政治和地缘等外部因素的影响,并将加剧石油市场过剩压力。该行结合年初以来的基本面变化,上调全年石油供需过剩预期至每日 67 万桶,同时下调布伦特油价年中枢至每桶 70 美元,而第二至第四季中枢分别为每桶 67.5、72.5 及 65 美元。风险情形下,若贸易摩擦下全球经济增长进一步受压,或为油价带来每桶约 5 美元的额外下跌空间。

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Traders also expressed uncertainty about the situation with China Evergrande, as the indebted property company has not provided clarification about a key interest payment.In economic news, the Commerce Department reported an unexpected increase in U.S. new home sales in August.Crude oil prices climbed Friday and front-month WTI oil futures contracts saw gains for a fifth straight week amid tighter supplies. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for November rose $0.68 or 0.9 percent at 73.98 a barrel. WTI Crude futures gained 2.8 percent for the week.

China’s stock markets are some of the largest in the world, with total market capitalization reaching RMB 79 trillion (US$12.2 trillion) in 2020. China’s stock markets are seen as a crucial tool for driving economic growth, in particular for financing the country’s rapidly growing high-tech sectors.Although traditionally closed off to overseas investors, China’s financial markets have gradually been loosening restrictions over the past couple of decades. At the same time, reforms have sought to make it easier for Chinese companies to list on onshore stock exchanges, and new programs have been launched in attempts to lure some of China’s most coveted overseas-listed companies back to the country.

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