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中金:下调布伦特油价年中枢至每桶 70 美元
中金发表研究报告指,美国对等关税政策打压经济增长预期,布伦特油价于上周进一步跌破每桶 65 美元。回顾历史,类似的价格跌幅大多发生在经济衰退时期。需求预期承压之际,OPEC + 决定在 5 月加快增产,超出市场预期。该行认为这或受到政治和地缘等外部因素的影响,并将加剧石油市场过剩压力。该行结合年初以来的基本面变化,上调全年石油供需过剩预期至每日 67 万桶,同时下调布伦特油价年中枢至每桶 70 美元,而第二至第四季中枢分别为每桶 67.5、72.5 及 65 美元。风险情形下,若贸易摩擦下全球经济增长进一步受压,或为油价带来每桶约 5 美元的额外下跌空间。



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中金:下调布伦特油价年中枢至每桶 70 美元
中金发表研究报告指,美国对等关税政策打压经济增长预期,布伦特油价于上周进一步跌破每桶 65 美元。回顾历史,类似的价格跌幅大多发生在经济衰退时期。需求预期承压之际,OPEC + 决定在 5 月加快增产,超出市场预期。该行认为这或受到政治和地缘等外部因素的影响,并将加剧石油市场过剩压力。该行结合年初以来的基本面变化,上调全年石油供需过剩预期至每日 67 万桶,同时下调布伦特油价年中枢至每桶 70 美元,而第二至第四季中枢分别为每桶 67.5、72.5 及 65 美元。风险情形下,若贸易摩擦下全球经济增长进一步受压,或为油价带来每桶约 5 美元的额外下跌空间。

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