Comcast Wave Analysis – 22 May 2025

- Comcast reversed from resistance area

- Likely to fall to support level 34.00

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RACE Wave Analysis – 22 May 2025

- RACE reversed from round resistance level 500.00

- Likely to fall to support level 460.00

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⚠️ Japan — National Consumer Price Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 3.6%

🕒 Exp: 3.5%

🎯 Fact.: 3.6% 📈

Crypto Climbs Back to January Highs

The cryptocurrency market added a mere 0.7% in 24 hours, but an important 5% in seven days to $3.5 trillion. This increase is important as it falls in the area of the market peaks reached in December and January.

The sentiment index jumped to 78, last seen in January, confirming a similar situation to what we saw earlier in the year.

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Pound shines as strong data limits room for BoE’s rate cut

Britain continues to be surprised by strong retail sector data. Data on consumer inflation accelerating to an annualised pace of 3.5% was complemented by strong retail sales figures, renewing buying momentum in GBPUSD.

For April, sales excluding fuel rose by 1.3%, and by the same month last year, the increase was 5.3%. This is much stronger than the average forecasts of economists, who expected to see +0.3% and +4.4%, respectively. Total sales rose 1.2% m/m and 5.0% y/y, equally impressively beating expectations.

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🇺🇸 Trading dynamics at the stock market premarket

📉 On Trump's rhetoric, the US stock market premarket is showing negative dynamics.

In the Financial sector, shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) are down 1.60%, while shares of Bank of America (BAC) are losing 2.38%.

In the Electronic Technology sector, shares of NVIDIA (NVDA) are down 2.73% and shares of Apple (AAPL) are losing 3.26%.

In the Consumer Staples sector, Coca-Cola (KO) is up 0.86% and Procter & Gamble (PG) is up 0.18%.

The current dynamics may strengthen investors' interest in the dollar as a safe-haven asset amid declines in leading technology and financial companies.

USDCAD Wave Analysis – 23 May 2025

- USDCAD reversed from strong resistance area

- Likely to fall to support level 1.3755

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GBPUSD Wave Analysis – 23 May 2025

- GBPUSD broke multi-month resistance level 1.3430

- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3600

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Greenback at Risk

Trouble is piling up for the US. After trade wars, fiscal issues are now weighing on the dollar. Moody's became the latest major agency to strip the US of its highest credit rating. Lawmakers passed a controversial, sweeping tax cut bill by a slim margin. A weak auction of 20-year Treasury bonds gave rise to concerns about cooling demand for treasuries from foreign investors. Finally, threats to raise tariffs on imported iPhones to 25% and on EU goods to 50%, brought back the relevance of the early April trade with simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds and the dollar.

As a result, the ‘sell America’ trade returned with renewed vigour. Among the main casualties has been the US dollar. The White House policy has shaken confidence in it, and rumours of coordinated currency intervention after the G7 summit in Canada are stirring the imagination of USD bears. And then there are the fiscal problems. Should we be surprised by the fall of the US currency?

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Pro News Video on the Dollar’s Falling, Gold’s Climbing

It’s been a wild week in the markets. U.S. stocks are sliding, the dollar’s under pressure, and Bitcoin just hit a new record. What’s behind the chaos?

00:20 Moody’s downgrade and a shaky Treasury auction

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📆 What is ahead?
Investors' focus in the last week of spring will be on US fiscal problems, trade negotiations with other countries and rumours of coordinated currency intervention after the summit of finance ministers and central bank heads of the G7 countries in Canada. The slightest hints of Forex intervention are fraught with serious fluctuations of dollar pairs.

The main event of the economic calendar will be the publication of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. Investors will be looking for clues about the fate of the federal funds rate although it is highly doubtful that the Fed will lower it before September.

Personal Consumption Expenditure Index data for April, the second estimate of US GDP for the first quarter and German inflation statistics are likely to rock financial markets. Still, they are unlikely to change existing narratives and trends.

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/05/25 (GMT)

18:40 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks


[Updated in real time]

⚠️ USA — Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks at 18:40 GMT

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/05/26 (GMT)

14:30 🇪🇺 ⚡️ ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks


[Updated in real time]

Crypto market let off steam over the weekend and is ready to move upwards

The Crypto Market cap rose by 6.5% from last week's level to $3.43 trillion. However, since Friday, the market has taken a pause and moved further sideways, falling to $3.35—the upper boundary of the previous resistance. Market capitalisation has been building up in small steps upwards, which looks like the formation of a solid base typical of the early stages of bullish momentum.

The sentiment index is at 73, having pulled back from extreme greed territory. The market is balancing around the current mark, letting off steam after strong bounces, which is also helping to extend the rally, albeit at a slower pace.

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The US is losing interest in oil due to low prices, giving its share to OPEC

Oil producers are cutting back on activity in response to lower oil prices. As Baker Hughes reported on Friday, the number of oil drillers fell to 465 from 473 a week earlier, to its lowest level since late 2021. It just so happened that prices weren't that far from current levels, but that was in the middle of a recovery in both production and prices.

Now, the decline in the rig count comes after a prolonged plateau. And it's a step down, promising future declines in production volumes from current, near-record levels. It is believed that the effect of the change in drilling activity will manifest itself in 3-5 quarters. However, the scale of the decline in the number of drillers should not be directly translated into production volumes. Thanks to efficiency gains, the US is now producing 13.4 million barrels per day with just 613 drilling rigs — compared to the previous peak of 13 million bpd, which required 877 rigs. This is bullish news for quotes, but its impact has so far been more than outweighed by news from traditional producers.

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