⚠️ EU — ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks at 14:30 GMT

Postponing 50% tariffs for the EU helped the S&P 500 bounce off its 200-day MA

The U.S. president said he delayed imposing 50% tariffs on EU imports after a call from the president of the European Commission. On this news, S&P500 index futures are adding nearly 1.5% on Monday, pushing back from the 200-day moving average as support. Unlikely to be intentional, but Trump has helped in the formation of an important bullish pattern, keeping the key US market index above the psychologically important curve that separates a rising market from a falling market.

The index was above that line on May 12th but started to give up ground just under a week ago and briefly fell below 5800 last Friday on unexpected news of 50% tariffs. The leisurely pace of negotiations by European bureaucrats has infuriated the US President, who has so far had no meaningful progress on tariff deals with the EU as opposed to some agreements with the UK, China and several other partners.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/05/27 (GMT)

08:00 🇦🇺 RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser Speaks

12:30 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders — Exp: -7.6% | -0.1% Actual: -6.3% | 0.2%

13:00 🇺🇸 S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City — Exp: 4.5% Actual: 4.1%

14:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ CB Consumer Confidence — Exp: 87.1 Actual: 98.0

16:20 🇨🇭 ⚡️ SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel Speaks


[Updated in real time]

Platinum Wave Analysis – 26 May 2025

- Platinum reversed from long-term resistance level 1095,00

- Likely to fall to support level 1075.00

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Bitcoin Wave Analysis – 26 May 2025

- Bitcoin reversed from support level 106850,00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 111830.00

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S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 26 May 2025

S&P 500: ⬆️ Buy

- S&P 500 reversed from support level 5775,00

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EURJPY Wave Analysis – 26 May 2025

- EURJPY reversed from key support level 161.40

- Likely to rise to resistance level 165.00

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Since the poll:
BTC +12%
XMR + 41%

At this point, Monero enters top 20 coins by market cap

USDJPY forming a bottom at 140 with upside potential to 160+

The media often focuses on the impact of America's debt problems on the dollar, but events in Japan have every chance to be more dramatic. Japan is buried under a debt burden exceeding 230% of GDP. This is double the average burden for developed countries and by a wide margin exceeds the nearest major peers (Greece at 142%, Italy at 137%, and the US at 122%), if we exclude small countries like Sudan, Singapore, and the like.

High debt limits a government's ability to absorb risk, much like an overloaded car: the difference may be subtle on a smooth road, but it becomes glaring on a rough one. At a time when even the solvency of the US is in question, it should come as no surprise that investors are asking the same question of other debtors.

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Bitcoin capitalised on the dollar’s temporary weakness

Fiscal problems and tariff confusion are undermining confidence in the US dollar. Other assets are rushing to take advantage of the loss of interest in the greenback. The ECB argues that the uncertainty of the White House policy could be a moment of glory for the euro. The regional currency can increase its share in international settlements and forex reserves. But digital assets could also benefit from the dollar's decline.

The BTCUSD rally against the backdrop of falling US stock indices and reduced global risk appetite might look strange. Perhaps the reason should be sought in Congress's legislation about stablecoins. The legalisation of cryptocurrency offers an opportunity to be optimistic.

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🇺🇸 Trading dynamics at the stock market pre-market

📈 After a long weekend, the US stock market pre-market is showing positive dynamics.

In the Technology Services sector, shares of Google (GOOGL) are up +1.54% and shares of Meta (META) are up +2.12%.

In the Financials sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is up +1.34% and Bank of America (BAC) is up +1.25%.

In the Electronic Technology sector, shares of NVIDIA (NVDA) are up +2.44% and shares of Apple (AAPL) are up +1.70%.

The current positive performance of equities may support demand for risk assets and reduce the attractiveness of the dollar as a defensive currency.

Three-year stagnation in US durable goods orders

Preliminary estimates of durable goods orders in the US showed a less sharp than expected dip in April. The decline was 6.3% versus a 7.5% jump a month earlier and an expected 7.6% drop.

The volatility is almost entirely due to the transport sector, and without that component, there was a 0.2% gain for the month after a commensurate decline earlier. This indicator has been near a plateau for the past three years, adding only 1% in money over that time against a 12% rise in the Core CPI and a 9% rise in Core PPI. Simply put, America has been cutting investment in durable goods for about as long as the Fed has been shrinking its balance sheet.

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⚠️ USA — CB Consumer Confidence at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 86.0

🕒 Exp: 87.1

🎯 Fact.: 98.0 📈

⚠️ Switzerland — SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel Speaks at 16:20 GMT

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/05/28 (GMT)

00:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member John C. Williams Speaks

01:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Consumer Price Index — Exp: 2.3% Actual: 2.4%

02:00 🇳🇿 ⚡️ Official Cash Rate — Exp: 3.25% Actual: 3.25%

02:00 🇳🇿 ⚡️ RBNZ Rate Statement

02:00 🇳🇿 ⚡️ RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement

02:10 🇬🇧 BOE Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli Speaks

02:10 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Christopher J. Waller Speaks

03:00 🇳🇿 ⚡️ RBNZ Press Conference

07:55 🇩🇪 Unemployment Change — Exp: 11K Actual: 34K

07:55 🇩🇪 Unemployment Rate — Exp: 6.3% Actual: 6.3%

09:00 All OPEC-JMMC Meetings

17:00 🇳🇿 RBNZ Press Conference

18:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Meeting Minutes

21:10 🇳🇿 ⚡️ RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby Speaks


[Updated in real time]

Nikkei 225 Wave Analysis – 27 May 2025

Nikkei 225: ⬆️ Buy

- Nikkei 225 reversed from support level 36675,00

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