中信证券：地缘扰动加剧不确定性 油价或大幅波动
中信证券研报指出，当前中东、俄乌地缘冲突主导油价大幅上行，短期内油价持续高位波动，关注矛盾是否进一步激化及原油基础设施港口等运行条件。OPEC + 的增产策略在高油价下或发生变化，关注 7 月 6 日即将召开的下一次会议。当前欧美需求正值旺季，关注去库表现能否支撑高油价。中国需求弱势运行，关注是否进一步下探。综合来看，短期地缘扰动推动布伦特期货价格或在 70-100 美元 / 桶运行，若需求不及预期且 OPEC + 持续增产，中枢将逐步下移。
BY 财经慢报
Like a stock, you can buy and hold Bitcoin as an investment. You can even now do so in special retirement accounts called Bitcoin IRAs. No matter where you choose to hold your Bitcoin, people’s philosophies on how to invest it vary: Some buy and hold long term, some buy and aim to sell after a price rally, and others bet on its price decreasing. Bitcoin’s price over time has experienced big price swings, going as low as $5,165 and as high as $28,990 in 2020 alone. “I think in some places, people might be using Bitcoin to pay for things, but the truth is that it’s an asset that looks like it’s going to be increasing in value relatively quickly for some time,” Marquez says. “So why would you sell something that’s going to be worth so much more next year than it is today? The majority of people that hold it are long-term investors.”
A spike in interest rates since the start of the year has accelerated a rotation out of high-growth technology stocks and into value stocks poised to benefit from a reopening of the economy. The Nasdaq has fallen more than 10% over the past month as the Dow has soared to record highs, with a spike in the 10-year US Treasury yield acting as the main catalyst. It recently surged to a cycle high of more than 1.60% after starting the year below 1%. But according to Jim Paulsen, the Leuthold Group's chief investment strategist, rising interest rates do not represent a long-term threat to the stock market. Paulsen expects the 10-year yield to cross 2% by the end of the year. A spike in interest rates and its impact on the stock market depends on the economic backdrop, according to Paulsen. Rising interest rates amid a strengthening economy "may prove no challenge at all for stocks," Paulsen said.
财经慢报 from us