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Вероятность заключения мирного соглашения между Россией и Украиной составляет около 70% — записка для клиентов инвестбанка Goldman Sachs
__ Первоисточник звучит так (цитата): Ukraine – peace deal odds and growth outlook – We use bond pricing to infer market probabilities of Ukraine achieving a peace deal, distinguishing between 'strong' and 'moderate' growth as well as 'no deal' scenarios. We estimate a 70% market probability of a peace deal, roughly unchanged year-to-date but up from 50% prior to the US election. Even after the large bond sell-off in recent sessions, market pricing thus remains relatively optimistic on Ukraine’s growth outlook, as well as on the prospects for a peace deal. Consistent with these market expectations, consensus GDP forecasts for Ukraine are above 5% in both 2026 and 2027.
Перевожу суть: у них нет инсайда, они строят модель на основе цен на суверенные облигации Украины. Принято считать, что облигации — это умные деньги и они что-то знают заранее. Впрочем украинские бонды росли активно в феврале... и что из этого вышло?
Вероятность заключения мирного соглашения между Россией и Украиной составляет около 70% — записка для клиентов инвестбанка Goldman Sachs
__ Первоисточник звучит так (цитата): Ukraine – peace deal odds and growth outlook – We use bond pricing to infer market probabilities of Ukraine achieving a peace deal, distinguishing between 'strong' and 'moderate' growth as well as 'no deal' scenarios. We estimate a 70% market probability of a peace deal, roughly unchanged year-to-date but up from 50% prior to the US election. Even after the large bond sell-off in recent sessions, market pricing thus remains relatively optimistic on Ukraine’s growth outlook, as well as on the prospects for a peace deal. Consistent with these market expectations, consensus GDP forecasts for Ukraine are above 5% in both 2026 and 2027.
Перевожу суть: у них нет инсайда, они строят модель на основе цен на суверенные облигации Украины. Принято считать, что облигации — это умные деньги и они что-то знают заранее. Впрочем украинские бонды росли активно в феврале... и что из этого вышло?
BY InveStory
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Among the actives, Ascendas REIT sank 0.64 percent, while CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust plummeted 1.42 percent, City Developments plunged 1.12 percent, Dairy Farm International tumbled 0.86 percent, DBS Group skidded 0.68 percent, Genting Singapore retreated 0.67 percent, Hongkong Land climbed 1.30 percent, Mapletree Commercial Trust lost 0.47 percent, Mapletree Logistics Trust tanked 0.95 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation dropped 0.61 percent, SATS rose 0.24 percent, SembCorp Industries shed 0.54 percent, Singapore Airlines surrendered 0.79 percent, Singapore Exchange slid 0.30 percent, Singapore Press Holdings declined 1.03 percent, Singapore Technologies Engineering dipped 0.26 percent, SingTel advanced 0.81 percent, United Overseas Bank fell 0.39 percent, Wilmar International eased 0.24 percent, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding jumped 1.42 percent and Keppel Corp, Thai Beverage, CapitaLand and Comfort DelGro were unchanged.
