Coca-Cola Wave Analysis – 19 June 2025

- Coca-Cola broke the support zone

- Likely to fall to support level at 68.55

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Visa Wave Analysis – 19 June 2025

- Visa broke daily up channel

- Likely to fall to support level at 332.90

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⚠️ Japan — National Consumer Price Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 3.6%

🕒 Exp: 3.5%

🎯 Fact.: 3.5%

⚠️ Japan — BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda Speaks at 06:40 GMT

US dollar fights to regain its safe-haven status

The US dollar has managed to recover, backed by the Middle East conflict. Until now, all the troubles for the global economy originated in America, from trade tariffs to the US fiscal problems that undermined confidence in the greenback and deprived it of its status as the main safe-haven currency.

However, as soon as the epicentre of turmoil shifted, everything changed. The Middle East conflict is about to make the US dollar great again. The stability of foreign investors' holdings of Treasury bonds indicates continued interest in the American currency. While China was getting rid of Treasuries in April, Japan and Britain were buying them.

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Stock indices: stagflation is scarier than a war

At its June meeting, the Fed painted a stagflationary scenario. The central bank lowered its forecast for US GDP in 2025 from 1.7% to 1.4% and raised its inflation estimate from 2.7% to 3%. This scared the S&P 500 more than the war in the Middle East and the potential increase in tariffs after the end of the 90-day grace period. The broad stock index retreated but continues to trade close to record highs.

Donald Trump is trying to support the US stock market. He is calling on the Fed to cut the federal funds rate by 1–2.5 percentage points. The US president claims to have already collected $88 billion from tariffs while inflation remains low. However, his criticism of Jerome Powell is more likely to scare investors than inspire them to buy.

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GBPUSD Wave Analysis – 20 June 2025

- GBPUSD reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to the resistance level at 1.3600

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Solana Wave Analysis – 20 June 2025

- Solana reversed from support level 141.60

- Likely to rise to the resistance level 163.8

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🇺🇸 US pre-market

📈 After the weekend in the US, the stock market premarket is showing mixed dynamics.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are down -0.05%, while Apple (AAPL) shares are up +0.26%.

In the finance sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are down -0.20%, while JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares are up +0.33%.

In the Consumer Goods sector, Tesla (TSLA) shares are up significantly by +1.78%, while General Motors (GM) shares are up +0.50%.

Mixed signals from key sectors are creating uncertainty for the dollar and preventing the formation of a stable vector for currency expectations in the short term.

Crypto traders hedging risks of correction

While Bitcoin is consolidating in the spot market, the futures market is signalling growing risks of a Bitcoin correction. Traders are hedging against the risk of a pullback to $100,000 and below against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical conflict. This significantly worsens global risk appetite and increases uncertainty in the Fed's monetary policy. Jerome Powell expects a significant acceleration in inflation in the US. This is not good news for US stocks and income assets in general.

The ratio between put and call options on Bitcoin on the Deribit cryptocurrency derivatives exchange jumped to 2.17 in one day, signalling high investor demand for protection.

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What is ahead: how big America spends

The highlight of the last full week of June will be Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress. Investors would like to hear more details about the state of the US economy and the outlook for monetary policy. However, the central bank does not know how and when the armed conflict in the Middle East will end, where Donald Trump's tariffs will stop, or how they will affect inflation. The Fed is moving in the shadows, and markets need to get used to this.

A package of macro statistics, including data on business activity, orders for durable goods, the trade balance, and the personal consumption expenditure index, will help clarify the situation with the US economy. During the holiday season, low trading volumes could trigger serious fluctuations in US stock indices, which will affect other financial markets.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/06/23 (GMT)

07:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Christopher J. Waller Speaks

07:15 🇫🇷 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 49.8 Actual: 47.8

07:15 🇫🇷 Services PMI — Exp: 49.2 Actual: 48.7

07:15 🇫🇷 PMI Composite — Exp: 49.3 Actual: 48.5

07:30 🇩🇪 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 48.9 Actual: 49.0

07:30 🇩🇪 Services PMI — Exp: 47.8 Actual: 49.4

07:30 🇩🇪 PMI Composite — Exp: 49.1 Actual: 50.4

08:00 🇪🇺 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 49.6 Actual: 49.4

08:00 🇪🇺 Services PMI — Exp: 50.0 Actual: 50.0

08:00 🇪🇺 PMI Composite — Exp: 50.5 Actual: 50.2

08:30 🇬🇧 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 46.9 Actual: 47.7

08:30 🇬🇧 Services PMI — Exp: 51.2 Actual: 51.3

08:30 🇬🇧 PMI Composite — Exp: 50.5 Actual: 50.7

13:45 🇺🇸 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 51.1 Actual: 52.0

13:45 🇺🇸 Services PMI — Exp: 52.9 Actual: 53.1

13:45 🇺🇸 PMI Composite — Exp: 52.2 Actual: 52.8

14:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales — Exp: 3.96M | -1.3% Actual: 4.03M | 0.8%

18:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Member John C. Williams Speaks


[Updated in real time]

The crypto market jumped out of the fear zone

Market capitalisation fell to $3.03 trillion over the weekend, which is easier to attribute to the expectations of speculators working over the weekend that the markets would sell off due to US strikes on targets in Iran. However, the limited reaction of traditional financial markets brought buyers back to crypto, showing their interest in buying at a discount and returning capitalisation to $3.12 trillion.

The cryptocurrency sentiment index fell to 42 on Sunday, its lowest level in two months, but rose to 47 at the start of the new week, jumping out of the fear zone into neutral territory.

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🇺🇸 US pre-market

📈The US stock market premarket is showing mostly mixed dynamics.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are down -0.83%, while Apple (AAPL) is up +0.33%.

In the finance sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are up +0.07%, while Bank of America (BAC) shares are down -0.13%.

In the Consumer Goods sector, Tesla (TSLA) shares are up significantly by +1.57%, while in the Retail sector, Amazon (AMZN) shares are virtually unchanged, showing minimal growth of +0.10%.

Mixed dynamics among key companies are adding an element of uncertainty to the market, which could cause conflicting sentiments and support moderate volatility in the dollar in the short term.

The dollar turns the tables

The dollar index has gained nearly 2% from the lows of more than three years set earlier this month. Israel's bombing of Iran has caused a complete reversal in sentiment towards US assets.

Since the beginning of the year, pressure on the US dollar has intensified, and since April, there have been frequent episodes of simultaneous declines in the dollar and US stock and bond markets. Such a combination is rare in developed markets, as it implies distrust in the economy — a suggestion that was seldom raised in relation to America in the 20th century. The press also raised the issue of the US government's long-term solvency with unusual frequency, while gold appeared to be a safe haven.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/06/24 (GMT)

08:00 🇩🇪 Ifo Business Climate — Exp: 88.3 Actual: 88.4

08:00 🇩🇪 IFO - Current Assessment — Exp: 86.5 Actual: 86.2

08:00 🇩🇪 IFO - Expectations — Exp: 90.0 Actual: 90.7

08:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

12:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.5% | 1.7% Actual: 0.6% | 1.7%

12:30 🇨🇦 Core CPI Actual: 0.6% | 2.5%

12:30 🇨🇦 Common Core CPI — Exp: 2.4% Actual: 2.6%

12:30 🇨🇦 Trimmed Core CPI — Exp: 3.0% Actual: 3.0%

12:30 🇨🇦 Median Core CPI — Exp: 3.0% Actual: 3.0%

13:00 🇺🇸 S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City — Exp: 4.0% Actual: 3.4%

13:00 🇪🇺 ⚡️ ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

13:35 🇬🇧 BOE Deputy Governor for Markets & Banking Sir David Ramsden Speaks

14:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

14:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

14:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ CB Consumer Confidence — Exp: 99.4 Actual: 93.0

22:45 🇳🇿 Trade Balance — Exp: 1060M


[Updated in real time]

WTI Wave Analysis – 23 June 2025

- WTI reversed from the resistance area

- Likely to fall to support level 65.00

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Cardano Wave Analysis – 23 June 2025

- Cardano reversed from the support area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6000

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