Switzerland may exert more pressure on the franc to bring back inflation

Data released on Monday showed that Switzerland's producer and import price index fell by 0.5% in May, against an expected increase of 0.1%. The decline in this leading inflation indicator was the strongest in six months, accelerating the year-on-year decline to 0.7% from 0.5% previously. This marks 25 months in negative territory, with the index itself at its lowest level since February 2022.

The consumer price index published earlier returned to negative territory for the first time in more than four years.

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⚠️ USA — Retail Sales at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: -0.1% | 0.0%

🕒 Exp: -0.7% | 0.1%

🎯 Fact.: -0.9% 📉 | -0.3% 📉

Bitcoin is neither a safe nor a FOMO asset for a moment

Bitcoin has failed to capitalise on the latest rise in risk appetite in financial markets. The ratio of US stocks to US Treasury bonds has reached its highest level since Donald Trump's inauguration. The S&P 500 rose on reports that Iran is seeking ways to resume nuclear talks with the United States. Investors believe that the worst of the conflict in the Middle East is behind us and will end soon.

The crypto market leader seems to be stuck between two worlds. It is not responding to the increase in global risk appetite, but it is not growing like safe-haven assets against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin and gold have a lot in common: their supply is limited in nature, and they cannot be destroyed. Tokens are easier to transfer or hide than precious metals. As a result, digital assets are sometimes used as a safe haven, especially in cases where confidence in fiat currencies is undermined.

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🇺🇸 US pre-market

📉The US stock market premarket is dominated by negative dynamics.

In the technology sector, Microsoft's (MSFT) shares are down by 0.75%, while Salesforce's (CRM) shares are down by 0.52%.

In the Finance sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are down -0.29%, while Bank of America (BAC) shares are losing -0.45%.

In the Energy sector, Chevron (CVX) shares are growing by +0.73%, while Exxon Mobil (XOM) shares are adding +0.68%.

Despite local growth in the energy sector, a broad decline in quotes of leading companies in the technology and financial sectors signals a possible capital outflow and increased pressure on the dollar.

Weaker-than-expected economy prompts FOMC comments

US retail sales fell 0.9% in May, returning to the level of three months ago. Economists on average had forecast a 0.7% contraction, following a 0.1% decline earlier and a 1.5% jump in March. Auto sales and lower fuel prices drive volatility. Still, there is also a worrying sign in the fall in household goods sales, where a decline in sales typically reflects Americans' shift to savings and has been associated with recessions in recent years.

A separate Fed report noted a 0.2% decline in the industrial production index in May. The index has retreated 0.4% from its February peak, forming a reversal from the 104 area (2017=100), roughly the same area where production peaked in 2019 and 2014. Slightly lower, around 102.3, was the peak in December 2007, which makes this area a kind of ceiling for the level of industrial production, setting up another reversal of the downward trend. Fundamental factors in the form of tariff wars and a tight monetary policy strengthen the arguments in favour of a short-term decline.

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GBPJPY Wave Analysis – 17 June 2025

- GBPJPY reversed from the resistance area

- Likely to fall to support level 193.65

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GBPUSD Wave Analysis – 17 June 2025

- GBPUSD reversed from the resistance level 1.3615

- Likely to fall to support level at 1.3400

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/06/18 (GMT)

06:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.2% | 3.4% Actual: 0.2% | 3.4%

06:00 🇬🇧 Core CPI — Exp: 3.6% Actual: 3.5%

06:00 🇬🇧 Retail Price Index — Exp: | 4.3% Actual: 0.2% | 4.3%

09:00 🇪🇺 Consumer Price Index — Exp: 1.9% Actual: 1.9%

09:00 🇪🇺 Consumer Price Index - Core — Exp: 2.3% Actual: 2.3%

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Claims — Exp: 245K Actual: 245K

12:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Claims — Exp: 1940K Actual: 1945K

12:30 🇺🇸 Building Permits — Exp: 1420K Actual: 1393K | -2.0%

12:30 🇺🇸 Housing Starts — Exp: 1350K Actual: 1256K | -9.8%

14:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories — Exp: -1800K Actual: -11473K

15:15 🇨🇦 ⚡️ BOC Governor Tiff Macklem Speaks

18:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Rate Decision — Exp: 4.50% Actual: 4.50%

18:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Statement

18:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Economic Projections

18:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Press Conference

22:45 🇳🇿 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.7%


[Updated in real time]

PZZA Wave Analysis – 17 June 2025

- PZZA reversed from key resistance level 53.90

- Likely to fall to support level 45.85

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WTI crude oil Wave Analysis – 17 June 2025

WTI crude oil: ⬆️ Buy

- WTI crude oil reversed from round support level 70.00

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⚠️ UK — Consumer Price Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 1.2% | 3.5%

🕒 Exp: 0.2% | 3.4%

🎯 Fact.: 0.2% | 3.4%

⚠️ USA — Unemployment Claims at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 250K

🕒 Exp: 245K

🎯 Fact.: 245K

⚠️ Canada — BOC Governor Tiff Macklem Speaks at 15:15 GMT

⚠️ USA — FOMC Rate Decision at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 4.50%

🕒 Exp: 4.50%

🎯 Fact.: 4.50%

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⚠️ USA — FOMC Press Conference at 18:30 GMT

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/06/19 (GMT)

01:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Employment Change — Exp: 20.6K Actual: -2.5K

01:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Unemployment Rate — Exp: 4.1% Actual: 4.1%

01:30 🇦🇺 Part-Time Employment Change Actual: 38.7K | -41.2K

07:30 🇨🇭 ⚡️ SNB Policy Rate — Exp: 0.00% Actual: 0.00%

07:30 🇨🇭 ⚡️ SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

08:00 🇨🇭 ⚡️ SNB Press Conference

11:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Bank of England Interest Rate Decision — Exp: 4.25% Actual: 4.25%

11:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ MPC Official Bank Rate Votes — Exp: 0-2-7 Actual: 0-3-6

11:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Monetary Policy Summary

23:30 🇯🇵 ⚡️ National Consumer Price Index

23:30 🇯🇵 National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food — Exp: 3.6%


[Updated in real time]

Gold Wave Analysis – 18 June 2025

- Gold reversed from resistance level 3445.00

- Likely to fall to support level 3300.00

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USDCAD Wave Analysis – 18 June 2025

- USDCAD broke daily down channel

- Likely to rise to the resistance level at 1.3730

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