Crypto market tests support again

Market capitalisation fell to $3.22 trillion on Friday morning from a peak of $3.47 trillion at the end of Wednesday amid a flight from risk assets due to the conflict between Israel and Iran. In recent hours, the market has rebounded from the support line that has been in place since May, reaching $3.28 trillion. Technical levels are working in the short term, but they may prove powerless in the event of a broader liquidation of bulls with a breakout of support in the $3.20–3.25 trillion range. In this case, the market could easily drop to $3 trillion or even target cyclical support in the $2.50 trillion area.

Bitcoin fell to $102.5K at the start of the day in Asia, repeating its touch of the 50-day moving average, as it did a week earlier. Although the reaction of the first cryptocurrency was sharp, the recovery to $105.0 at the time of writing indicates strong interest in buying on dips. At the same time, we do not support the idea that military conflicts are favourable for cryptocurrencies.

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🇺🇸 US pre-market

📉 The US stock market premarket is showing negative dynamics.

In the Technology Services sector, Microsoft (MSFT) shares are down 0.83%, and Google (GOOGL) shares are down 1.84%.

In the Financial sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are down 0.72%, while Bank of America (BAC) shares are down 1.17%.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are down 1.37%, while Apple (AAPL) shares are up 0.18%.

The decline of major technology and financial companies is intensifying the sell-off in the market, which could trigger an outflow of investments and put pressure on the dollar, especially if negative sentiment among investors persists.

Important events for the week ahead: rate decisions and US retail sales

Central banks will dominate the third week of June. The central event will be the Fed meeting. The futures market does not expect a monetary easing. However, the focus will be on an updated FOMC forecast, including the Fed Funds Rate and inflation/growth expectations. Derivatives predict that it will fall by 50 basis points by the end of 2025. If Fed officials see a different figure or try to guide expectations somewhere, the prospects for dollar pairs on Forex will be reassessed.

Investors do not expect monetary policy adjustments in Japan and England. Only the Swiss National Bank is likely to lower borrowing costs and hint at continuing the cycle in September. Rates are at risk of falling below zero by the end of the year.

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Pro News Weekly Video: Dollar Weakens, Gold Gains, Bitcoin Stalls

In this episode, we break down the key events currently moving the markets.

The US dollar has slipped to its lowest level since 2022, with talk of possible Fed rate cuts gaining momentum. US stocks are pulling back after a long rally, as concerns about a slowing economy start to build. Gold is attracting attention again, supported by central bank buying and growing geopolitical risks. And Bitcoin has paused its rise — but with strong backing from the White House, is the bigger trend still intact?

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Gold is ready to update all-time highs

The insatiable appetite of central banks has resulted in an increase in the share of gold value in reserves to 20%. Precious metals have surpassed the euro's 16% share. Only the US dollar is ahead with 46%. In 2022-2024, regulators increased their purchases to more than 1,000 tonnes annually. As a result, their combined gold reserves grew to 36,000 tonnes by the end of last year. They are now very close to the record set in 1965 of 38,000 tonnes.

The weakening of the US dollar and falling Treasury yields support the gold price. The reluctance of US inflation to accelerate under the influence of tariffs and the cooling of the economy increases the risks of resuming the Fed's monetary expansion cycle as early as September. Until recently, the futures market has not been pricing a rate cut until October.

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EURUSD Wave Analysis – 13 June 2025

- EURUSD reversed from the resistance level 1.1575

- Likely to fall to support level 1.1400

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Gold Wave Analysis – 13 June 2025

- Gold recently broke resistance level 3400.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 3500.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/06/16 (GMT)

02:00 🇨🇳 Industrial Production — Exp: 5.9% | 6.4% Actual: 5.8% | 6.3%

02:00 🇨🇳 Fixed Asset Investment — Exp: 4.0% Actual: 3.7%

02:00 🇨🇳 NBS Press Conference

12:30 🇺🇸 Empire State Manufacturing Index — Exp: -5.9 Actual: -16.0


[Updated in real time]

The crypto market quickly recovered from the shock

The Crypto Market cap stood at $3.34 trillion on Monday morning, up 2% over the past 24 hours, confirming a rebound from the support line of recent weeks near $3.2 trillion. The crypto market is being actively bought up against the backdrop of positive dynamics in key global stock indices. It cannot be said that the world has awakened an appetite for risk, but there is no reason to talk about a sustained drive for safety yet.

Bitcoin is up 1.7%, lagging major altcoins such as Solana (+7.8%) and Ethereum (+4.1%) in terms of growth. After finding support on the decline in the $104K area, near which the 50-day moving average also passes, BTC confirmed its commitment to the upward trend. However, resistance at $110K proved too difficult for the bulls in May and early June. Will they manage to consolidate above the current momentum? We will find out this week.

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🇺🇸 US pre-market

📈The US stock market is showing positive dynamics in pre-market trading.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are up +1.04%, while AVGO (AVGO) shares are up +1.27%.

In the Finance sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are up +0.34%, while Bank of America (BAC) shares are up +0.82%.

In the Retail sector, Amazon's (AMZN) shares are up +0.83%, while Walmart's (WMT) shares are up +0.28%.

The predominance of growth among large-cap companies indicates selective positive dynamics, which may support the attractiveness of the dollar by maintaining stable investment flows and reducing market volatility.

Oil loses value despite an extremely bullish background

If you read the news and don't look at the prices, it's hard to imagine a more bullish background for oil, but its quotes, although at their highest levels since March, still lost more than 1% on Monday compared to Friday's close and are 3.5% below the level at the opening of trading on Monday.

Israel has started targeting Iran's oil and gas facilities. In Iran, threats of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which up to 30% of the world's LNG and 20% of oil passes, are becoming increasingly vocal.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/06/17 (GMT)

03:30 🇯🇵 ⚡️ Overnight Call Rate — Exp: 0.50% Actual: 0.50%

03:30 🇯🇵 ⚡️ Monetary Policy Statement

06:30 🇯🇵 ⚡️ BOJ Press Conference

09:00 🇩🇪 ZEW Economic Sentiment — Exp: 34.8 Actual: 47.5

09:00 🇩🇪 ZEW Survey (Current Situation) — Exp: -74.0 Actual: -72.0

09:00 🇪🇺 ZEW Economic Sentiment — Exp: 23.5 Actual: 35.3

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Retail Sales — Exp: -0.7% | 0.1% Actual: -0.9% | -0.3%

13:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production — Exp: 0.0% Actual: -0.2%


[Updated in real time]

USDCHF Wave Analysis – 16 June 2025

- USDCHF reversed from key support level 0.8055

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8185

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USDJPY Wave Analysis – 16 June 2025

- USDJPY reversed from the support zone

- Likely to rise to the resistance level 146.00

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Google Wave Analysis – 16 June 2025

- Google reversed from support level 175.00

- Likely to rise to the resistance level 180.00

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Ethereum Wave Analysis – 16 June 2025

- Ethereum moving inside sideways price range

- Likely to rise to the resistance level 2754.00

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⚠️ Japan — Overnight Call Rate at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.50%

🕒 Exp: 0.50%

🎯 Fact.: 0.50%

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⚠️ Japan — BOJ Press Conference at 06:30 GMT