Bitcoin confidently updates highs

Market capitalisation topped $3.5 trillion on Thursday morning, later retreating slightly below that round level. Interestingly, Bitcoin's all-time highs have yet to spark FOMO. The historical highs of the first cryptocurrency keep the market positive, but the growth rate of altcoins is still commensurate with the dynamics of BTC.

The sentiment index at 72 remains on the cusp of entering the area of extreme greed, which often corresponds to periods of robust market growth when FOMO has yet to turn on, making growth vulnerable to corrective pullbacks.

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Services are dragging the eurozone PMI down

Flash Eurozone business activity moved into contractionary territory due to a sharp dip in the services sector.

The Euro-region manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4, the highest reading since August 2022, but still in contractionary territory as it is below 50. The index shows that the sector has been gaining momentum since last December, which can easily be linked to expectations of lavish spending by the new German government and potential repetition by other countries.

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🏠 US New Home Sales data drops today at 14:00 GMT!
April’s figure is expected at 696K, down from the previous 724K.

Will a slowdown in the housing market shake up the USD? 💵

Want to learn how this data impacts the markets?

👉 Check out our CME Group lesson here

⚠️ USA — Unemployment Claims at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 229K

🕒 Exp: 230K

🎯 Fact.: 227K 📈

🇺🇸 Trading dynamics at the stock market pre-market

📉 At the US stock market pre-market, negative dynamics are observed.

In the Technology sector, shares of Google (GOOGL) are up 1.38%, while shares of Meta (META) are down 0.04%.

In the Financials sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is down 0.36% while Bank of America (BAC) is losing 0.58%.

In the Electronic Technology sector, shares of NVIDIA (NVDA) are adding 0.10%, while shares of Apple (AAPL) are losing 0.49%.

The current dynamics may increase demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, creating pressure on risky currencies

Bitcoin Wave Analysis – 22 May 2025

- Bitcoin broke key resistance level 108055.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 115000.00

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NZDJPY Wave Analysis – 22 May 2025

- NZDJPY reversed from resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 84.00

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EURUSD tactical retreat ahead of 1.25 spurt

The single currency is losing ground against the dollar, pulling back to 1.13 on weak PMIs. This helps the 1.12-1.15 area cement its title as a multi-year pivot area. However, today's momentum may prove to be just a short game within a longer-term uptrend towards 1.20-1.25.

On the daily timeframes, EURUSD pushed away from the 50-day moving average in March, starting a rapid rise and later breaking above the 200-day. From late April to mid-May, the overheated market corrected within a classic Fibonacci pattern, and EURUSD regained support at the 50-day touch.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/05/23 (GMT)

06:00 🇩🇪 Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.2% | -0.4% Actual: 0.4% | -0.2%

06:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales With Auto Fuel — Exp: 0.3% | 4.5% Actual: 1.2% | 5.0%

06:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel — Exp: 0.3% | 4.4% Actual: 1.3% | 5.3%

12:30 🇨🇦 Retail Sales — Exp: 0.6% | -0.1% Actual: 0.8% | -0.7%

14:00 🇺🇸 New Home Sales — Exp: 694K Actual: 743K | 10.9%

16:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Lisa D. Cook Speaks


[Updated in real time]

Comcast Wave Analysis – 22 May 2025

- Comcast reversed from resistance area

- Likely to fall to support level 34.00

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RACE Wave Analysis – 22 May 2025

- RACE reversed from round resistance level 500.00

- Likely to fall to support level 460.00

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⚠️ Japan — National Consumer Price Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 3.6%

🕒 Exp: 3.5%

🎯 Fact.: 3.6% 📈

Crypto Climbs Back to January Highs

The cryptocurrency market added a mere 0.7% in 24 hours, but an important 5% in seven days to $3.5 trillion. This increase is important as it falls in the area of the market peaks reached in December and January.

The sentiment index jumped to 78, last seen in January, confirming a similar situation to what we saw earlier in the year.

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Pound shines as strong data limits room for BoE’s rate cut

Britain continues to be surprised by strong retail sector data. Data on consumer inflation accelerating to an annualised pace of 3.5% was complemented by strong retail sales figures, renewing buying momentum in GBPUSD.

For April, sales excluding fuel rose by 1.3%, and by the same month last year, the increase was 5.3%. This is much stronger than the average forecasts of economists, who expected to see +0.3% and +4.4%, respectively. Total sales rose 1.2% m/m and 5.0% y/y, equally impressively beating expectations.

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🇺🇸 Trading dynamics at the stock market premarket

📉 On Trump's rhetoric, the US stock market premarket is showing negative dynamics.

In the Financial sector, shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) are down 1.60%, while shares of Bank of America (BAC) are losing 2.38%.

In the Electronic Technology sector, shares of NVIDIA (NVDA) are down 2.73% and shares of Apple (AAPL) are losing 3.26%.

In the Consumer Staples sector, Coca-Cola (KO) is up 0.86% and Procter & Gamble (PG) is up 0.18%.

The current dynamics may strengthen investors' interest in the dollar as a safe-haven asset amid declines in leading technology and financial companies.

USDCAD Wave Analysis – 23 May 2025

- USDCAD reversed from strong resistance area

- Likely to fall to support level 1.3755

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GBPUSD Wave Analysis – 23 May 2025

- GBPUSD broke multi-month resistance level 1.3430

- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3600

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Greenback at Risk

Trouble is piling up for the US. After trade wars, fiscal issues are now weighing on the dollar. Moody's became the latest major agency to strip the US of its highest credit rating. Lawmakers passed a controversial, sweeping tax cut bill by a slim margin. A weak auction of 20-year Treasury bonds gave rise to concerns about cooling demand for treasuries from foreign investors. Finally, threats to raise tariffs on imported iPhones to 25% and on EU goods to 50%, brought back the relevance of the early April trade with simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds and the dollar.

As a result, the ‘sell America’ trade returned with renewed vigour. Among the main casualties has been the US dollar. The White House policy has shaken confidence in it, and rumours of coordinated currency intervention after the G7 summit in Canada are stirring the imagination of USD bears. And then there are the fiscal problems. Should we be surprised by the fall of the US currency?

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Pro News Video on the Dollar’s Falling, Gold’s Climbing

It’s been a wild week in the markets. U.S. stocks are sliding, the dollar’s under pressure, and Bitcoin just hit a new record. What’s behind the chaos?

00:20 Moody’s downgrade and a shaky Treasury auction

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