The dollar’s reversal to growth is in the hands of policymakers

The US dollar is retreating on all fronts, showing a daily decline since last Monday, when the military conflict between Israel and Iran came out of its hot phase and the tax bill in the US returned to the forefront.

Resuming its decline, interrupted by the bombing between Israel and Iran, the dollar index has been updating its more than three-year lows on a daily basis since the second half of last week. With total losses of over 12%, the first half of the year was the worst for the US currency since 1973, i.e. in the entire history of the free forex market.

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Bitcoin is absorbing cash coming to the crypto

Bitcoin is absorbing most of the cash coming into the digital asset market. Its share in the cryptocurrency market structure increased by 10 percentage points to 65% in the first half of 2025. This is the highest it’s been since January 2021. In contrast the capitalisation of altcoins has fallen by $300 billion since the beginning of this year. Thanks to developed infrastructure, support from the White House and regulation, larger tokens are displacing smaller competitors.

The MarketVector Digital Assets 100 Small-Cap Index, which covers the bottom half of the 100 largest digital assets, initially doubled after Donald Trump's election results in November. However, it then lost all its gains and fell by 50% in 2025. Bitcoin on the other hand, has risen by almost 14% since January and reached a new record high in May. Cryptocurrencies are benefiting from capital inflows into specialised exchange-traded funds and high global risk appetite.

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Video Pro News Flash: Why BTC Is Outpacing Altcoins in 2025

This week on Pro News Flash: Bitcoin is gaining strength and pushing altcoins aside. What’s behind this surge, and why are stablecoins suddenly stealing the spotlight? With new regulations and big companies jumping in, the crypto world is shifting fast.



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⚠️ USA — ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 29K

🕒 Exp: 99K

🎯 Fact.: -33K 📉

🇺🇸 US pre-market

📉The US stock market premarket is dominated by negative dynamics.

In the Technology Services sector, Microsoft (MSFT) shares are down -0.76%, while Meta Platforms (META) shares are losing -1.00%.

In the Financial sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares are up +0.29%, while Bank of America (BAC) shares are down -0.19%.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are down -1.33%, while Broadcom (AVGO) shares are down -0.66%.

The overall prevalence of declines among the largest companies is putting pressure on the stock market and may contribute to capital outflows, which in the short term is also putting pressure on the dollar.

GBPJPY Wave Analysis – 2 July 2025

- GBPJPY reversed from resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 193.85

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EURGBP Wave Analysis – 2 July 2025

- EURGBP broke resistance zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8700

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Citigroup Wave Analysis – 2 July 2025

- Citigroup broke key resistance level 85.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 90.00

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Silver Wave Analysis – 2 July 2025

- Silver reversed from support level 35.50

- Likely to rise to resistance level 37.30

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/07/03 (GMT)

01:45 🇨🇳 Markit Services PMI — Exp: 51.0 Actual: 50.6

01:45 🇨🇳 Markit Composite PMI Actual: 51.3

06:30 🇨🇭 Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.0% | -0.1% Actual: 0.2% | 0.1%

07:50 🇫🇷 Services PMI — Exp: 48.7 Actual: 49.6

07:50 🇫🇷 PMI Composite — Exp: 48.5 Actual: 49.2

07:55 🇩🇪 Services PMI — Exp: 49.4 Actual: 49.7

07:55 🇩🇪 PMI Composite — Exp: 50.4 Actual: 50.4

08:00 🇪🇺 Services PMI — Exp: 50.0 Actual: 50.5

08:00 🇪🇺 PMI Composite — Exp: 50.2 Actual: 50.6

08:30 🇬🇧 Services PMI — Exp: 51.3 Actual: 52.8

08:30 🇬🇧 PMI Composite — Exp: 50.7 Actual: 52.0

08:30 🇬🇧 BOE Credit Conditions Survey

11:30 🇪🇺 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Non-Farm Employment Change — Exp: 120K

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Rate — Exp: 4.3%

12:30 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings — Exp: 0.3% | 3.9%

12:30 🇺🇸 Change in Private Payrolls — Exp: 110K

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Claims — Exp: 240K

12:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Claims — Exp: 1960K

12:30 🇺🇸 Trade Balance — Exp: -69.9B

12:30 🇨🇦 Trade Balance — Exp: -6.0B

13:45 🇺🇸 Services PMI — Exp: 53.1

13:45 🇺🇸 PMI Composite — Exp: 52.8

14:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ ISM Services PMI — Exp: 50.8


[Updated in real time]

Contradictory signals from the US labour market

ADP data for June showed a decline in US private sector employment of 33,000, the first decline since March 2023. However, as was the case then, this may be a temporary setback, as the indicator of planned layoffs showed a decline from nearly 94,000 to 48,000 last month, which is 1.6% less than a year earlier. Planned layoffs peaked in April, when companies were shocked by the severity of tariffs, but the situation has stabilised in recent months.

The publication of ADP figures could cause increased market nervousness, reducing risk appetite, as it showed a steady decline in labour market activity from a peak of +221,000 in October, with a gradual decline and a shift to contraction in the month just ended. The official figures released on Thursday show the same overall trend, but can vary significantly from month to month. Last October was the first month of decline by 1,000 between two strong months.

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Bitcoin is preparing for new heights

The crypto market capitalisation approached $3.40 trillion at the end of the day on Wednesday, adding nearly 3% in 24 hours at the time of writing. Bitcoin's momentum towards the $110K mark created an environment for even greater gains in altcoins, with Ethereum jumping 6% and Dogecoin and Cardano rising more than 7%.

The sentiment indicator rose to 73, returning to the upper limit of the last three months' range—an important preparatory stage for the first cryptocurrency's further upward movement.

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⚠️ USA — Non-Farm Employment Change at 12:30 GMT

✔️ Prev: 139K

🕒 Exp: 120K

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⚠️ USA — Unemployment Rate at 12:30 GMT

✔️ Prev: 4.2%

🕒 Exp: 4.3%

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⚠️ USA — Unemployment Claims at 12:30 GMT

✔️ Prev: 236K

🕒 Exp: 240K