#WaveAnalysis #AMZN
Amazon reversed from key resistance level 188.50
Likely to fall to support level 181.00
Amazon recently reversed down from the key resistance level 188.50 (which has been steadily reversing the price from April, stopping earlier waves (3) and (5)).
The resistance level 188.50 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band – increasing the likelihood of further correction from the current levels.
Given the strength of resistance level 188.50 and the overbought daily Stochastic indicator, Amazon can be expected to correct down further to the next support level 181.00 (low of the previous correction (2)).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
Amazon reversed from key resistance level 188.50
Likely to fall to support level 181.00
Amazon recently reversed down from the key resistance level 188.50 (which has been steadily reversing the price from April, stopping earlier waves (3) and (5)).
The resistance level 188.50 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band – increasing the likelihood of further correction from the current levels.
Given the strength of resistance level 188.50 and the overbought daily Stochastic indicator, Amazon can be expected to correct down further to the next support level 181.00 (low of the previous correction (2)).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#Crypto market fell to a total cap of $2.2 trillion at the end of Monday but managed to add over 2% to the lows, to $2.25 trillion, still down 0.5% over 24h.
The technical picture in #Bitcoin is almost perfect. The low price of $58.2K coincided with the lower boundary of the descending range, was as close to the 200-day MA as possible, and almost duplicated the impulsive lows of early May. On the daily charts on Monday, BTC closed in the oversold RSI area, and today, it is already trying to get out of it. All this looks like a tempting signal to buy this dip. However, it may well turn out to be a bull trap, although we give less priority to such a scenario.
Bitcoin's share of the total crypto market cap is near 54%. Since March, there has been an acceleration in the decline of the share of "other" coins, as buyers' interest has focused on the leading coins. Such dynamics are typical signs of the first half of the 4-year cycle in Bitcoin.
The technical picture in #Bitcoin is almost perfect. The low price of $58.2K coincided with the lower boundary of the descending range, was as close to the 200-day MA as possible, and almost duplicated the impulsive lows of early May. On the daily charts on Monday, BTC closed in the oversold RSI area, and today, it is already trying to get out of it. All this looks like a tempting signal to buy this dip. However, it may well turn out to be a bull trap, although we give less priority to such a scenario.
Bitcoin's share of the total crypto market cap is near 54%. Since March, there has been an acceleration in the decline of the share of "other" coins, as buyers' interest has focused on the leading coins. Such dynamics are typical signs of the first half of the 4-year cycle in Bitcoin.
#Review
Shares of #Nvidia, the world's most traded, most popular, and most valuable company, have been under corrective pressure for a while. From last Thursday's peak at $140.48, the price has lost 16% to $117.86 in just three trading days.
Investors are taking abundant profits in one of their favourite securities, which has seen a three-fold increase in price since the beginning of 2024 and a ten-fold increase since the beginning of 2023. The amplitude of the company's growth and capitalisation is so significant that it influences the direction of the Nasdaq100 index and the entire US market.
Nvidia’s 6.7% drop on Monday provided the worst day for the Nasdaq100 since April. For now, we're seeing more signs of a quarterly portfolio shakeout but not a global downside reversal.
The heavy selling in the Nasdaq100 index has come with the index touching territory above 20,000, taking 3% away from it already.
Shares of #Nvidia, the world's most traded, most popular, and most valuable company, have been under corrective pressure for a while. From last Thursday's peak at $140.48, the price has lost 16% to $117.86 in just three trading days.
Investors are taking abundant profits in one of their favourite securities, which has seen a three-fold increase in price since the beginning of 2024 and a ten-fold increase since the beginning of 2023. The amplitude of the company's growth and capitalisation is so significant that it influences the direction of the Nasdaq100 index and the entire US market.
Nvidia’s 6.7% drop on Monday provided the worst day for the Nasdaq100 since April. For now, we're seeing more signs of a quarterly portfolio shakeout but not a global downside reversal.
The heavy selling in the Nasdaq100 index has come with the index touching territory above 20,000, taking 3% away from it already.
However, the Dow Jones index has been adding all this time, aiming for a third attempt to storm 40,000, a major milestone. This looks like an attempt to change the buying focus but not to dump risk.
Talk of a reversal to a bear market is too premature and has little validity. For now, a pullback to the lower boundary of the upside range, which has been in place since late 2022, looks like a working scenario. Now, it passes through 18,000, but in a month, it will approach the area of 18,400-18,500. This is where the highs are centred, and growth temporarily stalled in March. In addition, the 50-day MA will be close by.
In turn, Nvidia, the market's Pied Piper, may roll back to the $95-100 area before it can find a new wave of demand. But in this case, we shouldn't be surprised if sellers further weigh down the stock under pressure from competitors and overly inflated investor expectations at the start of the year.
Only a dip below this area would activate a scenario of a deeper dive to 17,000 or below.
Talk of a reversal to a bear market is too premature and has little validity. For now, a pullback to the lower boundary of the upside range, which has been in place since late 2022, looks like a working scenario. Now, it passes through 18,000, but in a month, it will approach the area of 18,400-18,500. This is where the highs are centred, and growth temporarily stalled in March. In addition, the 50-day MA will be close by.
In turn, Nvidia, the market's Pied Piper, may roll back to the $95-100 area before it can find a new wave of demand. But in this case, we shouldn't be surprised if sellers further weigh down the stock under pressure from competitors and overly inflated investor expectations at the start of the year.
Only a dip below this area would activate a scenario of a deeper dive to 17,000 or below.
#WaveAnalysis
#GBPCHF reversed from support level 1.1220
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1450
GBPCHF currency pair continues to rise after the earlier upward reversal from the pivotal support level 1.1220 (which stopped the two previous corrections iv and B).
The upward reversal from the support level 1.1220 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star Doji.
Given the predominant daily uptrend and the continuation of the bearish Swiss franc sentiment across the FX markets, GBPCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.1450 (top of the previous wave B).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#GBPCHF reversed from support level 1.1220
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1450
GBPCHF currency pair continues to rise after the earlier upward reversal from the pivotal support level 1.1220 (which stopped the two previous corrections iv and B).
The upward reversal from the support level 1.1220 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star Doji.
Given the predominant daily uptrend and the continuation of the bearish Swiss franc sentiment across the FX markets, GBPCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.1450 (top of the previous wave B).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#WaveAnalysis
#USDCAD reversed from key support level 1.3620
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3700
USDCAD currency pair today reversed up with the long-legged Doji from the key support level 1.3620 (which has been steadily reversing the price from the start of May, as you can see below).
The support level 1.3620 was strengthened by the intersecting lower daily Bollinger Band.
Given the strength of the support level 1.3620 and the clear daily uptrend, USDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.3700.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#USDCAD reversed from key support level 1.3620
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3700
USDCAD currency pair today reversed up with the long-legged Doji from the key support level 1.3620 (which has been steadily reversing the price from the start of May, as you can see below).
The support level 1.3620 was strengthened by the intersecting lower daily Bollinger Band.
Given the strength of the support level 1.3620 and the clear daily uptrend, USDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.3700.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#Crypto market cap added 1.2%, recovering to $2.28 trillion.
On 25 June, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell into "fear" territory at 30 points, the lowest since September 2023. On 26 June, the index recovered to 46. Both in September and now, the price and index's sudden drop out of a range has attracted buyers, laying the groundwork for gains after a prolonged slide.
However, the recovery momentum paused Wednesday morning, raising the question of whether we'll see a renewed selloff. Such a turn of events risks breaking the multi-month bullish view on Bitcoin and the entire crypto market.
However, the base case scenario now remains the development of a rebound and the long-term bull trend.
Despite the correction, derivatives market indicators suggest a steady bullish sentiment towards bitcoin ahead of the expiration of weekly, monthly and quarterly positions on 28 June, The Block reported.
According to analysts at QCP Capital, the options market is not expecting increased volatility in July.
On 25 June, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell into "fear" territory at 30 points, the lowest since September 2023. On 26 June, the index recovered to 46. Both in September and now, the price and index's sudden drop out of a range has attracted buyers, laying the groundwork for gains after a prolonged slide.
However, the recovery momentum paused Wednesday morning, raising the question of whether we'll see a renewed selloff. Such a turn of events risks breaking the multi-month bullish view on Bitcoin and the entire crypto market.
However, the base case scenario now remains the development of a rebound and the long-term bull trend.
Despite the correction, derivatives market indicators suggest a steady bullish sentiment towards bitcoin ahead of the expiration of weekly, monthly and quarterly positions on 28 June, The Block reported.
According to analysts at QCP Capital, the options market is not expecting increased volatility in July.
#Review
#Gold: third time lucky for the bears?
Gold has been under moderate pressure since last Friday, when the price reversed sharply from above $2360. This is an important signal from the bears that they retain control of the market, forming a trend of lower local highs.
On Wednesday morning, the price temporarily dipped below $2310, returning to the support area of the last two months near $2300. This brought the price close to an important level for the market, promising an imminent battle between bulls and bears.
We see gold's momentum from the October 2023 lows to the March 2024 highs. This was a principal reversal from the 200-week moving average.
Since then, the market balance has shifted to sell on the upside, indicating the prevalence of profit-taking. But so far, we are seeing a shallow correction, typical of strong bull markets, as the drawdown is being brought back on the decline to 76.4% of total momentum instead of the classic 61.8% (at $2200).
#Gold: third time lucky for the bears?
Gold has been under moderate pressure since last Friday, when the price reversed sharply from above $2360. This is an important signal from the bears that they retain control of the market, forming a trend of lower local highs.
On Wednesday morning, the price temporarily dipped below $2310, returning to the support area of the last two months near $2300. This brought the price close to an important level for the market, promising an imminent battle between bulls and bears.
We see gold's momentum from the October 2023 lows to the March 2024 highs. This was a principal reversal from the 200-week moving average.
Since then, the market balance has shifted to sell on the upside, indicating the prevalence of profit-taking. But so far, we are seeing a shallow correction, typical of strong bull markets, as the drawdown is being brought back on the decline to 76.4% of total momentum instead of the classic 61.8% (at $2200).
However, the downside momentum in gold is hard to ignore. There were strong selloffs on 22 April, 22-23 May, and 7 June. On 21 June, the decline was not so impressive but very instructive, as it prevented the price from returning above the 50-day moving average and absorbed the previous day's bullish candle.
Clearly, the bears in this market are strongly forming a reversal pattern to the downside. A rising dollar, helped by a further hawkish shift by FOMC members, is additionally playing on the sellers' side.
If the third attempt to go below $2300 is successful for the bears, the gold price could move into the $2200 area rather quickly, as the area between these levels does not contain any previous significant stops. The next destination could be the $2070 area, which has been working as resistance for a long time.
If we are talking about important milestones on the way up, they are $2340 (50-day average), $2360 (previous peak), and $2450 (global high).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
Clearly, the bears in this market are strongly forming a reversal pattern to the downside. A rising dollar, helped by a further hawkish shift by FOMC members, is additionally playing on the sellers' side.
If the third attempt to go below $2300 is successful for the bears, the gold price could move into the $2200 area rather quickly, as the area between these levels does not contain any previous significant stops. The next destination could be the $2070 area, which has been working as resistance for a long time.
If we are talking about important milestones on the way up, they are $2340 (50-day average), $2360 (previous peak), and $2450 (global high).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#WaveAnalysis
#USDCHF rising inside impulse wave i
Likely to reach resistance level 0.9000
USDCHF continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave i, which started earlier, when the pair reversed up from the key support level 0.8835, standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the previous upward impulse from December.
The upward reversal from the support level 0.8835 created the perfectly formed Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star.
Given the continuation of the Swiss franc sales and USD bullish sentiment seen today, USDCHF can be expected to rise toward the next round resistance level 0.9000 (former strong support from April and May).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#USDCHF rising inside impulse wave i
Likely to reach resistance level 0.9000
USDCHF continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave i, which started earlier, when the pair reversed up from the key support level 0.8835, standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the previous upward impulse from December.
The upward reversal from the support level 0.8835 created the perfectly formed Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star.
Given the continuation of the Swiss franc sales and USD bullish sentiment seen today, USDCHF can be expected to rise toward the next round resistance level 0.9000 (former strong support from April and May).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#WaveAnalysis #AAPL
Apple rising inside impulse wave 3
Likely to rise to resistance level 218.60
Apple recently reversed up from the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse from May.
The upward reversal from this support level stopped the previous short-term ABC correction 2 from the start of June.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the improvement in risk sentiment seen across the USA markets today, Apple can be expected to rise further in the active impulse wave 3 to the next resistance level 218.60 (which stopped the earlier waves v and b).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
Apple rising inside impulse wave 3
Likely to rise to resistance level 218.60
Apple recently reversed up from the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse from May.
The upward reversal from this support level stopped the previous short-term ABC correction 2 from the start of June.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the improvement in risk sentiment seen across the USA markets today, Apple can be expected to rise further in the active impulse wave 3 to the next resistance level 218.60 (which stopped the earlier waves v and b).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#Crypto market has been under moderate but persistent pressure throughout Wednesday, losing 1.26% over the past 24h to $2.24 trillion. Prices of top coins are down, except for Toncoin (+1.6% in 24h and 19% for 30 days), and Tron (+0.4% in 24h and +10% for 30 days).
#Bitcoin is trading near $60.7K, having clawed back nearly half of the rebound from Monday's lows. After the market met the long-overdue demand for spot ETFs, selling by miners and long-term holders began to have a noticeable impact on quotes. Neutral to neat pressure sentiment on global markets is also negative for BTC.
#XRP went back to $0.4640, the area of this month's lows and a support level for the last year. Sellers have been pushing quotes for the past 5 weeks. Earlier this year, the price broke key long-term support levels in the form of a trendline through the 2022 and 2023 lows and the 200 and 50-week averages. Without overall positivity in the crypto market, it could be a matter of days before the sell-off accelerates sharply.
#Bitcoin is trading near $60.7K, having clawed back nearly half of the rebound from Monday's lows. After the market met the long-overdue demand for spot ETFs, selling by miners and long-term holders began to have a noticeable impact on quotes. Neutral to neat pressure sentiment on global markets is also negative for BTC.
#XRP went back to $0.4640, the area of this month's lows and a support level for the last year. Sellers have been pushing quotes for the past 5 weeks. Earlier this year, the price broke key long-term support levels in the form of a trendline through the 2022 and 2023 lows and the 200 and 50-week averages. Without overall positivity in the crypto market, it could be a matter of days before the sell-off accelerates sharply.
#Review #USDJPY
Yen: a managing decline
The Japanese yen has fallen to its lowest since 1986 against the dollar and a historic low against the euro. Its YTD loss is 12.5%, the third-worst performance after the Nigerian naira and the Egyptian pound among the 36 most liquid global currencies.
This performance of the currency has the monetary and financial authorities in the Land of the Rising Sun publicly displeased. However, their anger is not as strong as it was in October 2022 and November 2023, when powerful currency interventions reversed the trend from decline to growth for months. It was not even as strong as in late April when the USDJPY pair was pushed back more than 4% in five trading days.
The persistent pressure on the yen is the result of fundamental forces. Japan's monetary policy remains ultrasoft, with the key rate at 0.1% versus the Fed's 5.25-5.50%, justifying a long-term carry trade.
Yen: a managing decline
The Japanese yen has fallen to its lowest since 1986 against the dollar and a historic low against the euro. Its YTD loss is 12.5%, the third-worst performance after the Nigerian naira and the Egyptian pound among the 36 most liquid global currencies.
This performance of the currency has the monetary and financial authorities in the Land of the Rising Sun publicly displeased. However, their anger is not as strong as it was in October 2022 and November 2023, when powerful currency interventions reversed the trend from decline to growth for months. It was not even as strong as in late April when the USDJPY pair was pushed back more than 4% in five trading days.
The persistent pressure on the yen is the result of fundamental forces. Japan's monetary policy remains ultrasoft, with the key rate at 0.1% versus the Fed's 5.25-5.50%, justifying a long-term carry trade.
The negativity on this topic is complemented by the disappointment of the portion of medium-term speculators who expected a more aggressive rate hike and winding down of the QE programme instead of one hike and discussion of reduced purchases.
Meanwhile, inflation is again showing signs of acceleration, although it is already near the target of 2% y/y, eating away at the value of yen savings.
We believe that the Japanese authorities' hands are virtually tied, and they will continue to say more than they do for several reasons. The low key rate is holding down the cost of servicing the largest government debt relative to GDP. The abundant QE programme makes the Bank of Japan the largest buyer of bonds and also indirectly funds the government.
A sharp change in these parameters would be a blow to public finances. Accelerating economic growth and rising tax revenues should offset this negative.
Meanwhile, inflation is again showing signs of acceleration, although it is already near the target of 2% y/y, eating away at the value of yen savings.
We believe that the Japanese authorities' hands are virtually tied, and they will continue to say more than they do for several reasons. The low key rate is holding down the cost of servicing the largest government debt relative to GDP. The abundant QE programme makes the Bank of Japan the largest buyer of bonds and also indirectly funds the government.
A sharp change in these parameters would be a blow to public finances. Accelerating economic growth and rising tax revenues should offset this negative.
However, macro indicators are weakly improving: the balance of payments is back in surplus, but the industrial production index is roughly where it was in the late 1980s, failing to feed into the 55% rise in USDJPY since early 2021.
Currency intervention in support of the yen is burning up FX Reserves, undermining the economy sustainability.
Without economic recovery, Japan is not interested in a yen reversal but only in easing volatility so as not to create currency shocks for businesses. At the end of May, the yen's nominal effective exchange rate was 9.8% lower, which is within the norm, although not a reason for calm.
In our view, the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan will continue to do the bare minimum necessary to contain the yen's decline unless it suddenly experiences an economic boom that will force the economy to keep from overheating. In this regard, it should not be surprising that USDJPY will continue to move upwards, hitting 38-year highs, erasing the merits of the Plaza Accord.
Currency intervention in support of the yen is burning up FX Reserves, undermining the economy sustainability.
Without economic recovery, Japan is not interested in a yen reversal but only in easing volatility so as not to create currency shocks for businesses. At the end of May, the yen's nominal effective exchange rate was 9.8% lower, which is within the norm, although not a reason for calm.
In our view, the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan will continue to do the bare minimum necessary to contain the yen's decline unless it suddenly experiences an economic boom that will force the economy to keep from overheating. In this regard, it should not be surprising that USDJPY will continue to move upwards, hitting 38-year highs, erasing the merits of the Plaza Accord.
#WaveAnalysis
#Gold reversed from support level 2300.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 2365.00
Gold recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 2300.00, which has been steadily reversing the price from the end of April, as can be seen below.
The support level 2300.00 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse from March.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the strength of the support level 2300.00, Gold can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 2365.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of June).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#Gold reversed from support level 2300.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 2365.00
Gold recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 2300.00, which has been steadily reversing the price from the end of April, as can be seen below.
The support level 2300.00 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse from March.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the strength of the support level 2300.00, Gold can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 2365.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of June).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#WaveAnalysis #NatGas
Natural gas reversed from resistance zone
Likely to fall to support level 2.6000
Natural gas recently reversed down from the resistance zone located between the resistance levels 3.200 and 3.0000, which have been reversing the price from the start this year, as can be seen below.
The aforementioned resistance zone was further strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.
Natural gas can be expected to fall further to the next pivotal support 2.6000, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave C of the higher order ABC correction (2) from the start of June.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
Natural gas reversed from resistance zone
Likely to fall to support level 2.6000
Natural gas recently reversed down from the resistance zone located between the resistance levels 3.200 and 3.0000, which have been reversing the price from the start this year, as can be seen below.
The aforementioned resistance zone was further strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.
Natural gas can be expected to fall further to the next pivotal support 2.6000, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave C of the higher order ABC correction (2) from the start of June.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro