Crypto traders hedging risks of correction

While Bitcoin is consolidating in the spot market, the futures market is signalling growing risks of a Bitcoin correction. Traders are hedging against the risk of a pullback to $100,000 and below against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical conflict. This significantly worsens global risk appetite and increases uncertainty in the Fed's monetary policy. Jerome Powell expects a significant acceleration in inflation in the US. This is not good news for US stocks and income assets in general.

The ratio between put and call options on Bitcoin on the Deribit cryptocurrency derivatives exchange jumped to 2.17 in one day, signalling high investor demand for protection.

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What is ahead: how big America spends

The highlight of the last full week of June will be Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress. Investors would like to hear more details about the state of the US economy and the outlook for monetary policy. However, the central bank does not know how and when the armed conflict in the Middle East will end, where Donald Trump's tariffs will stop, or how they will affect inflation. The Fed is moving in the shadows, and markets need to get used to this.

A package of macro statistics, including data on business activity, orders for durable goods, the trade balance, and the personal consumption expenditure index, will help clarify the situation with the US economy. During the holiday season, low trading volumes could trigger serious fluctuations in US stock indices, which will affect other financial markets.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/06/23 (GMT)

07:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Christopher J. Waller Speaks

07:15 🇫🇷 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 49.8 Actual: 47.8

07:15 🇫🇷 Services PMI — Exp: 49.2 Actual: 48.7

07:15 🇫🇷 PMI Composite — Exp: 49.3 Actual: 48.5

07:30 🇩🇪 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 48.9 Actual: 49.0

07:30 🇩🇪 Services PMI — Exp: 47.8 Actual: 49.4

07:30 🇩🇪 PMI Composite — Exp: 49.1 Actual: 50.4

08:00 🇪🇺 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 49.6 Actual: 49.4

08:00 🇪🇺 Services PMI — Exp: 50.0 Actual: 50.0

08:00 🇪🇺 PMI Composite — Exp: 50.5 Actual: 50.2

08:30 🇬🇧 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 46.9 Actual: 47.7

08:30 🇬🇧 Services PMI — Exp: 51.2 Actual: 51.3

08:30 🇬🇧 PMI Composite — Exp: 50.5 Actual: 50.7

13:45 🇺🇸 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 51.1 Actual: 52.0

13:45 🇺🇸 Services PMI — Exp: 52.9 Actual: 53.1

13:45 🇺🇸 PMI Composite — Exp: 52.2 Actual: 52.8

14:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales — Exp: 3.96M | -1.3% Actual: 4.03M | 0.8%

18:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Member John C. Williams Speaks


[Updated in real time]

The crypto market jumped out of the fear zone

Market capitalisation fell to $3.03 trillion over the weekend, which is easier to attribute to the expectations of speculators working over the weekend that the markets would sell off due to US strikes on targets in Iran. However, the limited reaction of traditional financial markets brought buyers back to crypto, showing their interest in buying at a discount and returning capitalisation to $3.12 trillion.

The cryptocurrency sentiment index fell to 42 on Sunday, its lowest level in two months, but rose to 47 at the start of the new week, jumping out of the fear zone into neutral territory.

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🇺🇸 US pre-market

📈The US stock market premarket is showing mostly mixed dynamics.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are down -0.83%, while Apple (AAPL) is up +0.33%.

In the finance sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are up +0.07%, while Bank of America (BAC) shares are down -0.13%.

In the Consumer Goods sector, Tesla (TSLA) shares are up significantly by +1.57%, while in the Retail sector, Amazon (AMZN) shares are virtually unchanged, showing minimal growth of +0.10%.

Mixed dynamics among key companies are adding an element of uncertainty to the market, which could cause conflicting sentiments and support moderate volatility in the dollar in the short term.

The dollar turns the tables

The dollar index has gained nearly 2% from the lows of more than three years set earlier this month. Israel's bombing of Iran has caused a complete reversal in sentiment towards US assets.

Since the beginning of the year, pressure on the US dollar has intensified, and since April, there have been frequent episodes of simultaneous declines in the dollar and US stock and bond markets. Such a combination is rare in developed markets, as it implies distrust in the economy — a suggestion that was seldom raised in relation to America in the 20th century. The press also raised the issue of the US government's long-term solvency with unusual frequency, while gold appeared to be a safe haven.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/06/24 (GMT)

08:00 🇩🇪 Ifo Business Climate — Exp: 88.3 Actual: 88.4

08:00 🇩🇪 IFO - Current Assessment — Exp: 86.5 Actual: 86.2

08:00 🇩🇪 IFO - Expectations — Exp: 90.0 Actual: 90.7

08:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

12:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.5% | 1.7% Actual: 0.6% | 1.7%

12:30 🇨🇦 Core CPI Actual: 0.6% | 2.5%

12:30 🇨🇦 Common Core CPI — Exp: 2.4% Actual: 2.6%

12:30 🇨🇦 Trimmed Core CPI — Exp: 3.0% Actual: 3.0%

12:30 🇨🇦 Median Core CPI — Exp: 3.0% Actual: 3.0%

13:00 🇺🇸 S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City — Exp: 4.0% Actual: 3.4%

13:00 🇪🇺 ⚡️ ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

13:35 🇬🇧 BOE Deputy Governor for Markets & Banking Sir David Ramsden Speaks

14:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

14:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

14:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ CB Consumer Confidence — Exp: 99.4 Actual: 93.0

22:45 🇳🇿 Trade Balance — Exp: 1060M


[Updated in real time]

WTI Wave Analysis – 23 June 2025

- WTI reversed from the resistance area

- Likely to fall to support level 65.00

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Cardano Wave Analysis – 23 June 2025

- Cardano reversed from the support area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6000

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Bitcoin Wave Analysis – 23 June 2025

- Bitcoin reversed from round support level 100,000

- Likely to rise to resistance level 105,000

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S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 23 June 2025

S&P 500: ⬆️ Buy

- S&P 500 reversed from support area

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US housing market: stabilisation at a low level

Sales in the US secondary housing market rose by 0.8% against an expected decline of 1.2%, following 5.9% and 0.5% in the previous two months. The data showed consolidation around an annual sales rate of 4 million homes. This is a low level compared to the peak of 6.74 million at the end of 2020, and even significantly below the 2015–2019 plateau of 5.5 million. Stabilisation is an important positive after months of slowdown. Such data somewhat alleviates concerns about a decline in American consumer activity, which preceded the 2008 global financial crisis.

It alleviates them, but does not eliminate them, as unsold inventories are simultaneously growing to 4.6 months at current sales rates. This is the highest level in the last nine years, approaching the upper limit of the post-crisis recovery norm for the real estate market. This is another argument in favour of lowering the key rate. Also, working in this direction results in a mere 1.3% increase in prices compared to a year earlier.

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⚠️ UK — BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks at 08:00 GMT

Bitcoin profiting on the returned demand for risk

Bitcoin has been on a rollercoaster ride. Firstly, quotes fell below the psychologically important round level of $100,000 in response to the United States' bombing Iran. Then, the cryptocurrency recorded one of the best daily rallies in 2025 thanks to Donald Trump's announcement of a ceasefire in the Middle East.

Along with the deterioration of global risk appetite amid the Israeli-Iranian conflict, fears about the growth of token supply put pressure on Bitcoin. Western sanctions are depriving the country of the opportunity to sell traditional assets. To attract resources, it may start selling cryptocurrency. Therefore, Tehran's reduction in oil exports increased the risks of a further decline in Bitcoin prices.

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⚠️ Canada — Consumer Price Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: -0.1% | 1.7%

🕒 Exp: 0.5% | 1.7%

🎯 Fact.: 0.6% 📈 | 1.7%

⚠️ EU — ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks at 13:00 GMT

Crude Oil still caught in a bear hug

The price of a barrel of WTI fell to $64 at the start of trading on Tuesday, while Brent fell to $66.7 at its lowest point at the start of active trading in Europe. Retreating to levels seen before the latest conflict, the price recouped the ‘war premium’. This was how the markets reacted to Iran’s relatively restrained response and the subsequent reports of a truce with Israel.

The sharp decline in prices indicates the continuing dominance of bears in the market. The Middle East conflict triggers a 20% price increase. Still, a moderate response and Trump’s tweet nullify the entire war premium.

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⚠️ USA — CB Consumer Confidence at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 98.4

🕒 Exp: 99.4

🎯 Fact.: 93.0 📉