🇺🇸 Trading dynamics at the stock market pre-market

📉 The US stock market is witnessing negative dynamics at the pre-market.

In the Financial sector, shares of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) are down 0.34%, while shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) are losing 0.69%.

In the Electronic Technology sector, shares of NVIDIA (NVDA) are down 0.80%, while shares of Broadcom (AVGO) are losing 0.99%.

In the Healthcare sector, shares of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) are down 0.09%, while shares of Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) are up 0.25%.

The current dynamics may strengthen the demand for the dollar as a defensive asset, putting pressure on other currencies.

UK’s inflation surge puts BoE closer to Fed

UK inflation accelerated more strongly than forecast, casting doubt on the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England any time soon. The overall consumer price index increased 1.2% in April, the strongest monthly jump since April 2022. The annual rate of growth accelerated from 2.6% to 3.5%, the highest since January 2024. Core inflation accelerated to an annual rate of 3.8%, the highest in 13 months.

What is most worrying about the current situation is the persistently positive trend in inflation. The overall rate hit a low of 1.7% in September 2024, confirming the correctness of the Bank of England's decision to kick off the monetary easing cycle shortly before. Further policy easing will now require more justification from the central bank.

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Bitcoin close to the top

Market capitalisation has risen 2% in the last 24 hours to $3.37 trillion, 8.5% below January's all-time peaks. However, Bitcoin buyers are showing more confidence, trading above the $107k area (+2.9%). Ethereum and many other altcoins saw stronger intraday gains but still have a lot to recover after retreating significantly following the broader market pullback after Trump’s inauguration.

Bitcoin is forming its fourth consecutive daily growth candle. Bulls continue their attempts to secure a foothold above the $107K level. While the first cryptocurrency has briefly reached higher levels, it has yet to establish a sustained hold above them.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/05/22 (GMT)

02:00 🇳🇿 Annual Budget Release

07:15 🇫🇷 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 48.9 Actual: 49.5

07:15 🇫🇷 Services PMI — Exp: 47.7 Actual: 47.4

07:15 🇫🇷 PMI Composite — Exp: 48.1 Actual: 48.0

07:30 🇩🇪 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 48.8 Actual: 48.8

07:30 🇩🇪 Services PMI — Exp: 49.6 Actual: 47.2

07:30 🇩🇪 PMI Composite — Exp: 50.3 Actual: 48.6

08:00 🇪🇺 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 49.2 Actual: 49.4

08:00 🇪🇺 Services PMI — Exp: 50.4 Actual: 48.9

08:00 🇪🇺 PMI Composite — Exp: 50.6 Actual: 49.5

08:00 🇩🇪 Ifo Business Climate — Exp: 87.4 Actual: 87.5

08:00 🇩🇪 IFO - Current Assessment — Exp: 86.8 Actual: 86.1

08:00 🇩🇪 IFO - Expectations — Exp: 88.0 Actual: 88.9

08:30 🇬🇧 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 46.2 Actual: 45.1

08:30 🇬🇧 Services PMI — Exp: 50.0 Actual: 50.2

08:30 🇬🇧 PMI Composite — Exp: 49.3 Actual: 49.4

08:30 🇦🇺 RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser Speaks

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Claims — Exp: 230K Actual: 227K

12:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Claims — Exp: 1890K Actual: 1903K

13:45 🇺🇸 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 49.9 Actual: 52.3

13:45 🇺🇸 Services PMI — Exp: 51.0 Actual: 52.3

13:45 🇺🇸 PMI Composite Actual: 52.1

14:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales — Exp: 4.15M Actual: 4.00M | -0.5%

18:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member John C. Williams Speaks

22:45 🇳🇿 Retail Sales — Exp: 0.0% | 0.7%

23:30 🇯🇵 ⚡️ National Consumer Price Index

23:30 🇯🇵 National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food — Exp: 3.4%


[Updated in real time]

Brent crude oil Wave Analysis – 21 May 2025

Brent crude oil: ⬇️ Sell

- Brent crude oil reversed from key resistance level 66.00

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Nikkei 225 Wave Analysis – 21 May 2025

Nikkei 225: ⬇️ Sell

- Nikkei 225 reversed from the resistance level 38280.00

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3M Wave Analysis – 21 May 2025

- 3M reversed from multi-month resistance level 154.00

- Likely to fall to support level 145.00

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AUDJPY Wave Analysis – 21 May 2025

- AUDJPY reversed from key resistance level 95.30

- Likely to fall to support level 92.00

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Bitcoin confidently updates highs

Market capitalisation topped $3.5 trillion on Thursday morning, later retreating slightly below that round level. Interestingly, Bitcoin's all-time highs have yet to spark FOMO. The historical highs of the first cryptocurrency keep the market positive, but the growth rate of altcoins is still commensurate with the dynamics of BTC.

The sentiment index at 72 remains on the cusp of entering the area of extreme greed, which often corresponds to periods of robust market growth when FOMO has yet to turn on, making growth vulnerable to corrective pullbacks.

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Services are dragging the eurozone PMI down

Flash Eurozone business activity moved into contractionary territory due to a sharp dip in the services sector.

The Euro-region manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4, the highest reading since August 2022, but still in contractionary territory as it is below 50. The index shows that the sector has been gaining momentum since last December, which can easily be linked to expectations of lavish spending by the new German government and potential repetition by other countries.

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🏠 US New Home Sales data drops today at 14:00 GMT!
April’s figure is expected at 696K, down from the previous 724K.

Will a slowdown in the housing market shake up the USD? 💵

Want to learn how this data impacts the markets?

👉 Check out our CME Group lesson here

⚠️ USA — Unemployment Claims at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 229K

🕒 Exp: 230K

🎯 Fact.: 227K 📈

🇺🇸 Trading dynamics at the stock market pre-market

📉 At the US stock market pre-market, negative dynamics are observed.

In the Technology sector, shares of Google (GOOGL) are up 1.38%, while shares of Meta (META) are down 0.04%.

In the Financials sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is down 0.36% while Bank of America (BAC) is losing 0.58%.

In the Electronic Technology sector, shares of NVIDIA (NVDA) are adding 0.10%, while shares of Apple (AAPL) are losing 0.49%.

The current dynamics may increase demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, creating pressure on risky currencies

Bitcoin Wave Analysis – 22 May 2025

- Bitcoin broke key resistance level 108055.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 115000.00

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NZDJPY Wave Analysis – 22 May 2025

- NZDJPY reversed from resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 84.00

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EURUSD tactical retreat ahead of 1.25 spurt

The single currency is losing ground against the dollar, pulling back to 1.13 on weak PMIs. This helps the 1.12-1.15 area cement its title as a multi-year pivot area. However, today's momentum may prove to be just a short game within a longer-term uptrend towards 1.20-1.25.

On the daily timeframes, EURUSD pushed away from the 50-day moving average in March, starting a rapid rise and later breaking above the 200-day. From late April to mid-May, the overheated market corrected within a classic Fibonacci pattern, and EURUSD regained support at the 50-day touch.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/05/23 (GMT)

06:00 🇩🇪 Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.2% | -0.4% Actual: 0.4% | -0.2%

06:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales With Auto Fuel — Exp: 0.3% | 4.5% Actual: 1.2% | 5.0%

06:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel — Exp: 0.3% | 4.4% Actual: 1.3% | 5.3%

12:30 🇨🇦 Retail Sales — Exp: 0.6% | -0.1% Actual: 0.8% | -0.7%

14:00 🇺🇸 New Home Sales — Exp: 694K Actual: 743K | 10.9%

16:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Lisa D. Cook Speaks


[Updated in real time]