🇺🇸 Trading dynamics at the stock market pre-market

📈The US stock market pre-market is showing mixed dynamics.

Google (GOOGL) shares are up +0.44% while Microsoft shares are down -0.44%.

In the Electronic Technology sector, shares of NVidia (NVDA) are up +2.99% while shares of Apple (APPL) are down -0.33%.

In the Financials sector, shares of Visa (VISA) are down -0.18% while in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Amazon (AMZN) is adding +0.09%.

Such volatility could support the dollar as a defensive asset, putting pressure on other currencies.

US inflation: a step back before the run-up?

US consumer inflation slowed to 2.3% y/y, just below the forecast 2.4% and the same level as a year earlier. Core inflation maintained its annualised pace of 2.8% but also rose slightly weaker than expected.

This softer data triggered a new wave of dollar decline after a week of strong growth. The reason for this dynamic is the softening of expectations for the key rate, which has increased the chances of a cut. Investors have become less fearful of the immediate effects of rates. At the same time, many economists point out that the upward impact on prices will only increase in the coming months. Even if tariffs return to pre-April levels, the tail effects will stretch over the next couple of quarters.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/05/15 (GMT)

01:00 🇦🇺 MI Inflation Expectations Actual: 4.1%

01:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Employment Change — Exp: 20.9K Actual: 89.0K

01:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Unemployment Rate — Exp: 4.1% Actual: 4.1%

01:30 🇦🇺 Part-Time Employment Change Actual: 59.5K | 29.5K

06:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.0% | 0.6% Actual: 0.2% | 0.7%

06:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.6% | 1.2% Actual: 0.7% | 1.3%

06:00 🇬🇧 Industrial Production — Exp: -0.5% | -0.9% Actual: -0.7% | -0.7%

06:00 🇬🇧 Manufacturing Production — Exp: -0.8% | -0.5% Actual: -0.8% | -0.8%

06:00 🇬🇧 Goods Trade Balance — Exp: -19.1B Actual: -19.9B

09:00 🇪🇺 Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.4% | 1.2% Actual: 0.3% | 1.2%

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Claims — Exp: 229K Actual: 229K

12:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Claims — Exp: 1890K Actual: 1881K

12:30 🇺🇸 Producer Price Index — Exp: 0.2% | 2.5% Actual: -0.5% | 2.4%

12:30 🇺🇸 Core PPI — Exp: 0.3% | 3.1% Actual: -0.4% | 3.1%

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Retail Sales — Exp: 0.0% | 0.3% Actual: 0.1% | 0.1%

12:30 🇺🇸 Empire State Manufacturing Index — Exp: -8.2 Actual: -9.2

12:30 🇺🇸 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index — Exp: -11.3 Actual: -4.0

12:40 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

13:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production — Exp: 0.2% Actual: 0.0%

22:30 🇳🇿 Business NZ Manufacturing Index

23:50 🇯🇵 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: -0.1% | -0.2%

23:50 🇯🇵 GDP Price Index — Exp: 3.2%


[Updated in real time]

Disney Wave Analysis – 15 May 2025

- Disney rising inside impulse wave (1)

- Likely to reach resistance level 119,00

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CHFJPY Wave Analysis – 15 May 2025

- CHFJPY reversed from the resistance level 176.00

- Likely to fall to support level 173.00

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⚠️ Australia — Employment Change at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 36.4K

🕒 Exp: 20.9K

🎯 Fact.: 89.0K 📈

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⚠️ Australia — Unemployment Rate at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 4.1%

🕒 Exp: 4.1%

🎯 Fact.: 4.1%

⚠️ UK — Gross Domestic Product at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.5% | 0.6%

🕒 Exp: 0.0% | 0.6%

🎯 Fact.: 0.2% 📈 | 0.7% 📈

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⚠️ UK — Gross Domestic Product at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.1% | 1.5%

🕒 Exp: 0.6% | 1.2%

🎯 Fact.: 0.7% 📈 | 1.3% 📈

Altcoins are consolidating their strength by joining Bitcoin

Market capitalisation has fallen 2% in the last 24 hours to $3.30 trillion. Bitcoin, stuck near past highs, quickly spoiled the market's mood, triggering a local profit correction after the rally. An active correction in gold may also be playing a role.

The crypto market sentiment index rolled back from 73 to 70, while remaining at an ‘elevated level’, implying positive sentiment and sufficient risk appetite.

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S&P 500 on its way to 7500 with a next stop at 6000

The S&P 500 Index has surpassed levels from the beginning of the year, up about 23% from the lows reached in early April. The market is currently just 4% below the area of highs that functioned as active resistance from December to February. This raises the question of whether resistance at the 6,000 point level on the S&P 500 is still relevant.

The market decline from February, which turned into a significant drop in April, may have contributed to the market's recovery and set the stage for a rally. On weekly timeframes over the past 14 years, the market's approach to the 200-week moving average has served as an indicator of profitable buying. This year was no exception, although the S&P 500 fell slightly short of that line, like the situation in October 2023. Most bounces from this level in recent years have coincided with changes in monetary policy.

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⚠️ USA — Unemployment Claims at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 229K

🕒 Exp: 229K

🎯 Fact.: 229K

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⚠️ USA — Retail Sales at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 1.7% | 0.8%

🕒 Exp: 0.0% | 0.3%

🎯 Fact.: 0.1% 📈 | 0.1% 📉

⚠️ USA — Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks at 12:40 GMT

🇺🇸 Trading dynamics at the stock market pre-market

📉The US stock market pre-market is showing negative dynamics.

In the Financial sector, shares of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) are down -0.13%, while shares of Bank of America (BAC) are losing -0.09%.

In the Electronic Technology sector, shares of NVIDIA (NVDA) are down -0.66% and shares of AVGO (AVGO) are losing -1.44%.

In the Healthcare sector, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is up +0.65%, while Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) is down -1.05%.

Such volatility may increase demand for the dollar as a defensive asset, putting pressure on other currencies

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/05/16 (GMT)

03:00 🇳🇿 Expected Annual Inflation 2y from now Actual: 2.29%

09:00 🇪🇺 European Commission Economic Forecasts

11:00 🇨🇭 ⚡️ SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel Speaks

12:30 🇺🇸 Building Permits — Exp: 1450K Actual: 1412K | -4.7%

12:30 🇺🇸 Housing Starts — Exp: 1360K Actual: 1361K | 1.6%

14:00 🇺🇸 UoM Consumer Sentiment — Exp: 53.1 Actual: 50.8

15:00 🇬🇧 BOE Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli Speaks


[Updated in real time]

GBPAUD Wave Analysis – 15 May 2025

- GBPAUD reversed from the support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 2.1000

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