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学者:美国热衷于征收关税 却鲜少获得回报

早在美国总统特朗普宣布“解放日”措施之前,美国就一直在考虑征收高额关税,但带来的往往是不确定甚至是灾难性的后果。

达特茅斯学院经济学教授道格拉斯·欧文(Douglas Irwin)在社交媒体X上发帖称:“在21世纪的经济中,我们有一位20世纪的总统,他想把我们带回到19世纪。”

19世纪是美国关税的“黄金时代”,平均税率经常接近50%。这个世纪延续了美国建国以来所采用的一项原则,即在美国经济经历工业化时期时保护美国经济。

科罗拉多大学教授基思·马斯库斯(Keith Maskus)说:“对那段时期的仔细研究表明,关税确实在一定程度上保护了国内工业的发展。

“但更重要的两个因素是国际劳动力和资本的获取……当时资本在美国流动。”

加利福尼亚州大学戴维斯分校教授克里斯托弗·梅斯纳(Christopher Meissner)告诉法新社,除了这些因素之外,“美国工业部门蓬勃发展的原因是,我们拥有丰富的自然资源”。这些资源包括煤炭、石油、铁矿石、铜和木材——所有这些都对工业至关重要。

...

#关税 #美国 #经济 #特朗普 #保护主义



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学者:美国热衷于征收关税 却鲜少获得回报

早在美国总统特朗普宣布“解放日”措施之前,美国就一直在考虑征收高额关税,但带来的往往是不确定甚至是灾难性的后果。

达特茅斯学院经济学教授道格拉斯·欧文(Douglas Irwin)在社交媒体X上发帖称:“在21世纪的经济中,我们有一位20世纪的总统,他想把我们带回到19世纪。”

19世纪是美国关税的“黄金时代”,平均税率经常接近50%。这个世纪延续了美国建国以来所采用的一项原则,即在美国经济经历工业化时期时保护美国经济。

科罗拉多大学教授基思·马斯库斯(Keith Maskus)说:“对那段时期的仔细研究表明,关税确实在一定程度上保护了国内工业的发展。

“但更重要的两个因素是国际劳动力和资本的获取……当时资本在美国流动。”

加利福尼亚州大学戴维斯分校教授克里斯托弗·梅斯纳(Christopher Meissner)告诉法新社,除了这些因素之外,“美国工业部门蓬勃发展的原因是,我们拥有丰富的自然资源”。这些资源包括煤炭、石油、铁矿石、铜和木材——所有这些都对工业至关重要。

...

#关税 #美国 #经济 #特朗普 #保护主义

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However, analysts are positive on the stock now. “We have seen a huge downside movement in the stock due to the central electricity regulatory commission’s (CERC) order that seems to be negative from 2014-15 onwards but we cannot take a linear negative view on the stock and further downside movement on the stock is unlikely. Currently stock is underpriced. Investors can bet on it for a longer horizon," said Vivek Gupta, director research at CapitalVia Global Research.

Spiking bond yields driving sharp losses in tech stocks

A spike in interest rates since the start of the year has accelerated a rotation out of high-growth technology stocks and into value stocks poised to benefit from a reopening of the economy. The Nasdaq has fallen more than 10% over the past month as the Dow has soared to record highs, with a spike in the 10-year US Treasury yield acting as the main catalyst. It recently surged to a cycle high of more than 1.60% after starting the year below 1%. But according to Jim Paulsen, the Leuthold Group's chief investment strategist, rising interest rates do not represent a long-term threat to the stock market. Paulsen expects the 10-year yield to cross 2% by the end of the year. A spike in interest rates and its impact on the stock market depends on the economic backdrop, according to Paulsen. Rising interest rates amid a strengthening economy "may prove no challenge at all for stocks," Paulsen said.

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